2007 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Aaron Baker

1. Rich Hill Cubs - The Cubs used the revolving door with Rich Hill in 2006 calling him up and then sending him back down to the minors, as his minor league success didn’t translate to the majors early in the season. Hill clearly didn’t need anymore time in the minors as he dominated minor league hitters through 100 innings with a 1.80 ERA, .83 WHIP, and 135 strikeouts. With the usual suspects (Kerry Wood & Mark Prior) succumbing to injury, the Cubs finally called Hill up for good July 27. He struggled in his first start after his second call-up, but then took off with four quality starts with a relief appearance mixed in to end the month of August. As good as Hill’s August performances were, his true coming out party was in September, as Hill pitched 42 innings with 3-1 record, 1.93 ERA, .88 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts. On the season Hill finished with a 6-7 record in 99.1 innings, 4.17 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 90 Strikeouts. The 4.17 ERA is real impressive since at one point Hill’s ERA stood at 9.53. The combination of pitches Hill throws allowed hitters to manage only a .227 Batting Average Against (BAA) on the season. Hill’s August and September dominance helped that as his BAA were .216 and .178 respectively. Hill’s K/9 rate in September was 10.71 and throughout his minor league career he had amazing K/9 rates. Hill’s late season performances helped Cubby fans alittle with the disappointment of their team’s performance and solidified his spot in the 2007 rotation. In mock drafts I have looked at Hill is being taken between the 12th and 15th rounds.

2. Nick Markakis Bal – In his first 67 games of 2006 Markakis looked hapless at times to the tune of a 29-2-21-.268 statline. Throw in that the Orioles dropped him all the way to the bottom of their batting order and fantasy gamers didn’t give much of a thought about his ability, much less a roster spot. To Markakis’ credit he didn’t give up and continued to work hard with Hitting Coach Terry Crowley. That work was evident as he finished the second half of the season showing power, plate discipline, rose up to second in the batting order. His second half statistics finished at 43-14-41-.311 in 70 games. Markakis’ power was strictly by pulling the ball, as all but 2 of his homers were to right, right-center field. His gap-to-gap hitting was exceptional though, as he had ability to hit the ball to all fields. I love his ability and patience at the plate as Markakis had a solid OBP of .351 and he has yet to show his ability to steal bases, either in the minors or majors. However, according to Baseball America, Markakis has the ability to steal 20-25 bases a year. Once he hones in his baserunning and basestealing ability and the O’s finally use the strengths of their players I see Markakis as a 20/20 potential All-Star. That potential still looks like a few years away, but for next season I can see Markakis hitting at least 20 homers. If he starts the season hitting third as he did in the end of 2006, 100+ RBI doesn’t seem out of the question with Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora hitting in front of him. Afterall, fellow 2006 rookie Ryan Zimmerman drove in 110 RBI this past season.

3. Mark Teahen KC – Mark Teahen’s 2006 campaign was cut short by injury, but he was impressive for the number of ABs he had, as he finished with a 70-18-69-10-.290 statline in 393 ABs. Pro-rating those stats over the course of 600 ABs and Teahen would’ve finished at 107-27-105-15. Teahen was a perfect 10 for 10 in his stolen base attempts. Teahen’s contact rate finished at 78% for the season, as he struck out 85 times in those 393 ABs, so a .290 to .300 average may not be attainable. At age 25, Teahen’s power may have finally developed, as he hadn’t shown any power for a player manning the hot corner in the minors or in his rookie season in the majors. Teahen hit 14 doubles and 3 triples with those 11 homeruns in 201 ABs in the second half. Not sure what that means? Pro-rating his doubles rate in the second half over 600 ABs and Teahen would’ve had 41 doubles on the season and would’ve tied him for 9th in the AL in that category. So the question is, could we see Mark Teahen be an impact player for 2007? I think he can be, but he does have some obstacles to overcome. The first is the ballpark he plays in. According to the 2006 Bill James Handbook, Kauffman Stadium is the 26th worst Hitters Park in the majors. Plus the Royals lineup isn’t exactly the Bronx Bombers. There’s also the fact that Alex Gordon is waiting in the wings and Teahen will likely be moved to the outfield, which could stunt his growth with the bat by having to learn a new position.

4. Adrian Beltre Sea – Could the 2007 season be an image of Beltre’s ’04 season or something close? I think Beltre can put up numbers close to his career year with the Dodgers. The .300+ batting average probably won’t be there, but Beltre did have an 81% contact average last season. Beltre finished August and September hitting 7 and 9 homers respectively and for the entire second half had a 38-18-54-.285 statline. Beltre’s SLG% jumped from .392 in the first half to .552 in the second half. Just to give you a comparison, Vladimir Guerrero had a .552 SLG% over his entire season! I wouldn’t worry about park conditions either. Beltre’s career year in 2004 was in a pitchers’ park, Dodger Stadium. Entering his age 28 season, Beltre is still in his peak years. Beltre will probably start the season in the two hole of the batting order, but could slot down to the three hole if the monster season I think he’ll have comes to fruition. The Mariners lineup is pretty good with Ichiro (contract year), Richie Sexson (40 homer power), Raul Ibanez (coming off career year), along with Beltre as the core of the offensive production. Jose Guillen could be a nice addition if he recovers well from the Tommy John Surgery and Jose Vidro at DH. The second half tear Beltre displayed gives hope to a monster sleeper season at a position where the elite 3rd basemen are short in numbers and the rest bunch up in a loaded second tier.

5. Willy Taveras Hou – With Taveras being dealt to Colorado with Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholtz for Jason Jennings, I like Taveras to finally get a chance to use that blazing speed to rack up the steals. Throw in all the runs Taveras should score in a formidable Rockies lineup and you have the potential of 100+ runs, 50+ steals and a .300+ batting average for 2007. In Houston, Taveras never really got a chance to display his skills, as the Astros were constantly looking for guys who could drive runs in for their anemic 2006 offense. Rumors are that the humidor balls will not be used this season further enhancing the chances of a great offensive season for Taveras. Taveras can run out most infield groundballs and had an 83% contact rate last season. While you’ll never see Taveras hit for power he could be a better and cheaper alternative come draft day than drafting similar type of hitter in Juan Pierre.

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