If you guys don't already know, I've been known for drafting closers early and often. In 2009 we have another great situation when it comes to closers. First, several closers are on new teams and that either increases or decreases their value. Secondly, with many closers switching teams we now have new closers. Several of the new closers will have a huge impact and some of the old stand by closers are still has reliable as ever.
Closers on New Teams
Francisco Rodriguez, NY Mets - Last year he broke the record for saves in a season at 62. Now he got his big contract with the New York Mets and he's moving to the National League. KROD will continue to close for another good starting rotation, but this rotation isn't as good as the Angels rotation was last year, so we suspect his numbers will go down. Also, moving leagues sometimes causes problems for pitchers, at least the first season, so temper expectations for Rodriguez.
Projections: 47 Saves, 2.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 79 Ks
Draft Round Value: 4-5
Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels - Fuentes left the friendly confines of Colorado to be the 9th inning guy for the Angels, replacing Rodriguez. As much as we liked Fuentes before he isn't a guy cut out mentally for the job in the American League. The AL is a different game and you have to have outstanding stuff to close in the American League as you won't be face pitch-hitters or bench players. We think he will lost the job by June and allow Jose Arredondo to take over. Steer clear of Fuentes.
Projections: 14 Saves, 4.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 68 Ks
Draft Round Value: 12
Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians - Another closer we liked last year, but not in 2009. Kerry Wood is a injury hound. He already has back issues and its only spring training. While he does have Jensen Lewis breathing down his back, Wood should be able to keep the job, but expect a high number of blown saves and some very stressful innings. Just hope that he can stay healthy as that will be his and your biggest problem to overcome.
Projections: 31 Saves, 3.68 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 80 Ks
Draft Round Value: 13
Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers - The old veteran and future hall-of-famer has finally left San Diego for the beer guzzling town of Milwaukee. The move was probably good for Hoffman, but at 41 his fastball has lost its pop and batters do not fear him as they once did. The Brewers will stick with him as long as they can, but in the end expect another Brewer reliever to take the job by late July. That is assuming the Brewers are competitive. Staying healthy is also a major concern for Hoffman owners. We recommend staying clear of Hoffman.
Projections: 26 saves, 3.78 ERA, 1,25 WHIP, 65 Ks
Draft Round Value: 14-16
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies - Street is making the move from the AL to the NL. Street is coming off a tough year where he lost the closer job for the A's and then was effectively fired. The move to Colorado isn't a good one for him as in Oakland he was at least in a pitchers ballpark. We suspect he will be able to hold onto the job most of the year, if not the entire season, but don't expect much from him. Also, draft Manny Corpas if you plan to draft Street.
Projections: 28 Saves, 3.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 68 Ks
Draft Round Value: 15
Rising Stars From The Bullpen
Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates - IF Capps could stay and healthy and he pitched for a better team he would be one of the best closers in baseball for along time. That's just not the case. Capps is coming into the 2009 season as the pirates closer and he is 100% healthy. The Pirates won't afford Capps too many save opportunities, but when he gets them Capps will make the most of it. He could be traded around the deadline as the Pirates are afraid of talent, but we think the Pirates want to keep him around a bit longer, especially with his cheap contract. If you get Capps, try and pickup Grabow as well. If Capps gets hurt, Grabow is your closer.
Projections 33 Saves, 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 70 Ks
Draft Round Value: 13-15
Chris Perez, St. Louis Cardinals - He's not the closer for sure, but we think by the end of spring training that LaRussa will hand the job to his 23-year old stud. Perez might look 16, but he has tremendous stuff and a rocket arm. His fastball is deadly and he mixes his pitches well. He does has to get the walks down and if he can't he won't start the season as the closer. He is without a doubt the closer of the future and if he doesn't start the season as the closer he will be the closer by June. His only issues are lack of experience and having the mental grit to be a closer. We expect him to mature and develop this year into the top flight closer.
Projections: 34 Saves, 2.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 82 Ks
Draft Round Value: 20
Newcomers To The Closer Role
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers - One of our favorites this season. Broxton was born in a bullpen and not a womb. He has killer stuff and could easily top 100 strikeouts if the wind blows right. The Dodgers were so sure of him that they let Saito go to the Red Sox and allow Broxton to take over the closer job. He reminds us of Eric Gagne in his presence on the mound in the Dodger uniform. Expect a learning curve and a few bad outings as Broxton does lose concentration and then gets hammered. We thing he will mature past those problem by August and go on to dominate the rest of the year. We think he will be the saves leader in the National League.
Projections: 49 saves, 2.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 100 Ks
Draft Round Value: 9-10
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs- The heir to Kerry Wood's job, Marmol is a closer by nature. He has absolutely dominating stuff and clearly has the mental makeup for a closer. Right now he is battling Kevin Gregg for the job, but Pinella would be crazy to hand the job to anyone else at this point. With a hardy fastball and a magic-act slider Marmol will close well. He also plays for a team that will be on the winning side often, so save opportunities should be plentiful.
Projections: 45 Saves, 2.64 ERA, 1.18, 95 Ks
Draft Round Value: 11-12
Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins - Lindstrom has amazing stuff. His fastball has regularly been clocked at 98-100 MPH. He is the new closer for the Marlins and will see plenty of action. Although Lindstrom is capable of having bouts of inconsistency, he will end up being one of the best closers in the National League. The Marlins should score plenty of runs and their starting pitching will do their best to keep the games close. We consider Lindstrom a top sleeper and a great closer for 2009.
Projections: 39 Saves, 3.25 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 85 Ks
Draft Round Value: 18-22
Fernando Rodney, Detroit Tigers - Rodney isn't truly new to the closer role as he closed games off and on for the Tigers over the years. However, this is the first time he opens the season as the Tigers closer and will get his chance to prove he can hold the job all year. Rodney has great stuff and mentally can handle the job. He has a great fastball and a dominating slider and should have no problem racking up strikeouts. You can probably get Rodney in the later rounds, so he should be a steal. He will share time with Lyons to keep him fresh, but it will be his job.
Projections: 38 Saves, 2.56 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 72 Ks
Draft Round Value: 16
Old Reliable Closers
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees - Still the class of the American League. He is older, but his cut fastball is still one of the hardest pitches in the league to hit. The Yankees also improved their team big time and with better starting pitching we should see Rivera all the time.
Projections: 42 Saves, 1.85 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 74 Ks
Draft Round Value: 8
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox - Papelbon is clearly the best closer in the American League. The only negative for Papelbon is that the Red Sox refuse to pitch him more then 2 games in a row, so it has impacted his numbers, but kept him healthy. He is a fierce competitor and a flame thrower. He is one of the most consistent closers in the league and will without a doubt remain on top this year. We expect about the same as last year.
Projections: 44 Saves, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 76Ks
Draft Round Value: 3-4
Joe Nathan Minnesota Twins - This guy gets it done every year. As the improved Twins take the field in 2009, expect them to win and expect Nathan to save the games. He is a lights out closer with great command. He is one of the best closers at coming in and getting 3 straight outs keeping command of his WHIP. In most cases he is a great value at draft time because his name doesn't carry weight like some of the others.
Projections: 42 Saves, 1.45 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 79 Ks
Draft Round Value: 5-7
Jose Valverde Houston Astros - It took Valverde some time to adjust to Houston and their hitter friendly park last year, but once he settled in he was one of the more dominating closers. Valverde has great stuff and when he has command few are better. The great thing about Valverde is there is little chance he will be traded and even less chance the Astros will ever give up on him. He is a sound pick and worth a top 7 pick no doubt.
Projections: 46 Saves, 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP 81 KsDraft Round Value: 7-9.
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