Running for the Title
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Running for the Title by Steve Siniski

More than any other position in fantasy football, running backs will determine what direction a team takes. One stud guarantees an owner of some success. Grabbing two is a definite springboard straight to the top. The key to drafting running backs goes further than just the second or third round, though. It's also important to know what rookies will get a shot to see significant action, as well as the usual suspects likely to wind up taped and bandaged at any given moment. For every bust coming off a career year like Lamar Smith in 2001, there's an Anthony Thomas or Mike Anderson, on the waiver wire. So take the time to research deeper than the middle rounds, because more than one sleeper can be had even after Week 1 or 2.

1. Marshall Faulk, St. Louis
Numbers? Who needs numbers when discussing what could be the best fantasy football player ever? Just ask anyone who's been bounced in the playoffs by the St. Louis stud in the last two seasons how great Faulk is. He seems to get stronger as the season draws on, meaning he's easily worth the No. 1 pick even if he misses a handful of games. Statheads will drool over Faulk's 47 scores over the last two years.

2. Ahman Green, Green Bay
He runs (1,387 yards), he catches (135 grabs over the last two seasons), he scores (24 touchdowns last two years). Did we mention how important consistency is?

3. Ricky Williams, Miami
The move to Miami, where Norv Turner is now calling the offensive shots, will do wonders for Williams. Think of what Turner's done for Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson. It's not out of the question to think 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns.

4. Priest Holmes, Kansas City
It's time for Holmes to show for a second consecutive year that you don't mess with a Priest on Sunday. With upgraded weapons at wide receiver, look for a slight drop in his receiving totals. However, he'll still approach 1,400 yards on the ground and double-digit scores.

5. Shaun Alexander, Seattle
He turned Ricky Watters into Wally Pipp by running for an NFL high 14 touchdowns. With Trent Dilfer under center, it's clear Mike Holmgren will run far more often. Look for Alexander to equal, if not better, last year's 1,318 total yards.

6. Corey Dillon, Cincinnati
Dillon hit double-digits in touchdowns for the first time since 1997 (his rookie year) and will again be the focal point of the offense with the unimpressive duo of Gus Frerotte and Jon Kitna under center. He's also coming off a season high 340 carries.

7. Curtis Martin, N.Y. Jets
There may be no more consistent back in the NFL. Over the last seven years, he's averaged 334 carries and his touchdown total has climbed in each of the last three years. If you're looking for stability, Martin's the man!

8. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
The rookie flourished under Turner, and now Marty Schottenheimer is in town. That can only mean bigger and better things for Tomlinson, especially with new tackle Mike Williams aboard. Forget the sophomore slump for this guy. LT is going to be a 2nd year star.

9. Eddie George, Tennessee
Looking for a player with huge bounce-back potential? Go no further than George, who failed to top the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. Out to prove his nagging injuries of a year ago were no joke, this workhorse will approach 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns.

10. Terrell Davis, Denver
It's tough to rank Davis in the top 10 at the position, especially after three straight injury-plagued campaigns. He's played in just 17 of Denver's last 48 games, but like George, this one-time Hall of Fame lock has a lot to prove. Healthy in minicamp for the first time in years, Davis may finally have the workout base to come out of fall training camp in top shape.

11. Antowain Smith, New England
Coming off a career-year, Smith is all about boom-or-bust. Will he be a one-year wonder in New England? Or can he continue his rejuvenation? New England upgraded its passing game and Smith still has to deal with J.R. Redmond and Kevin Faulk in the backfield. Consider him one of the backs whose value will slip heading into Week 1.

12. Edgerrin James, Indianapolis
James enters 2002 as one of the fantasy world's biggest question marks. Can he regain the form that saw him run for 35 touchdowns during his first two years? Or will he require half the season to get back into form? Because of his hard-nosed workout habits and the offense he plays in, The Edge will still be a major fantasy contributor.

13. Anthony Thomas, Chicago
The A-Train had three games with at least 30 carries and four with at least 127 yards rushing as a rookie. When he finally wrestled away the starting job, he averaged 96.7 yards over the final seven games. His offensive line is among the best in the NFL, making Thomas a rising star at the position.

14. Stephen Davis, Washington
Davis has proven that he can be a decent receiver out the backfield and Steve Spurrier promises to continue running the ball. The NFL's No. 3 rusher a year ago (1,432 yards), Davis will break the 1,000-yard barrier, but expecting more than 1,100-1,200 yards may be asking a little much with a new offensive system in Washington.

15. Emmitt Smith, Dallas
Old Reliable is thisclose to becoming the NFL's all-time leading rusher. Less than 600 yards away, Smith is a good bet to log a ton of action until he puts the record in his rearview mirror. The smart money says to draft Smith, ride the early season wave and deal him before Troy Hambrick steals some of the work.

16. Garrison Hearst, San Francisco
Returning to the NFL with a bang, Hearst rang up 1,206 yards on the ground. However, he scored just five times and averaged only 15.75 carries per game. His true value comes as a No. 2 back on a fantasy roster.

17. Jerome Bettis, Pittsburgh
The Bus came to a halt in 2002 for the first time because of injury. Now 30, Bettis has logged nearly 270 carries per year over the course of his 10 seasons. It looks like that workload is finally beginning to take its toll. Buyer beware.

18. Deuce McAllister, New Orleans
The Saints have decided to turn the Deuce loose, but one has to wonder if the oft-injured college back can handle the rigors of a full-time gig with the big boys. A definite sleeper, McAllister's biggest hurdle will be his own durability, because he has all of the physical tools to put together a monster year in the Saints' spread offense.

19. Michael Bennett, Minnesota
While not as polished as McAllister in the passing game; as a runner, Bennett is every bit as fast. And having a healthy Daunte Culpepper under center will only help Bennett show that speed kills in the NFL. A 1,000-yard season is within his reach, but given the team's desire to pummel Randy Moss with the pigskin, don't expect many scores from the second-year back.

20. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville
The most dynamic back in the league hands down, no player is as bitten by the injury bug. Until Taylor proves that the Jaguars are paying him in dollars and not trainer's tape, he's a HUGE fantasy risk, but he could be well worth the roster spot.

21. Jamal Lewis, Baltimore
Like James, Lewis is battling back from a torn ACL. However, Lewis does not have the type of offensive weapons surrounding him and must deal with a new quarterback under center?one with almost no pro experience. Defenses will stack the line and force Baltimore to throw, thus Lewis' numbers will suffer.

22. Tiki Barber, N.Y. Giants
Maybe the Giants will finally realize that they need to put the ball in Barber's hands. After all, he has averaged over 1,500 yards rushing and receiving over the last two seasons. He only scored four times a year ago, and with Ron Dayne returning, Barber's touchdown total will again be too low for him to be considered a high-impact fantasy back.

23. James Stewart, Detroit
Not the most durable No. 1 runner, Stewart is still the man in Detroit. And with the current quarterback situation in the Motor City, it's looking more and more like the Lions will attack first with its mammoth offensive line.

24. Charlie Garner, Oakland
While Garner may do a little bit of everything and excel in the passing game, he isn't a real threat to score touchdowns. Thus, he's useful in yardage leagues but virtually useless in scoring leagues.

25. Mike Alstott, Tampa Bay
Now is Alstott's opportunity to show that he can in fact carry the offensive load for an entire season. He's never had trouble getting into the end zone, which is always a plus. However, after seeing how effective the multiple-back system was in Oakland, don't be surprised if his new head coach, Jon Gruden, decides to try it out in Tampa Bay.

26. Thomas Jones, Arizona
It's now or never for Jones. The former first-round pick is now the No. 1 runner with Michael Pittman in Tampa Bay. Jones will also be working behind one of the up-and-coming offensive lines in the NFL, giving him a chance to finally step up and crack the 1,000-yard barrier.

27. Warrick Dunn, Atlanta
Despite the fact he inked a long-term deal during the off season The drafting of T.J. Duckett doesn't say much about Atlanta's faith in Dunn. It may add up to yet another disappointing year.

28. Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis
Anyone with The Edge must save a spot for Rhodes. All the undrafted free-agent did was prove that he can run (1,104 yards) and catch (34 receptions), racking up all but 56 of his rushing yards in the final 11 games. Rhodes may not approach 1,000 yards if James comes back all the way, but based on his rookie performance, he is one of the best insurance policies in the fantasy world.

29. Stacey Mack, Jacksonville
The sun rises, the sun sets, and Taylor gets hurt. Three things every fantasy player can count on. That said, Mack quietly racked up 10 touchdowns and topped the century mark three times in the final four weeks of 2001. Fear not and grab him. Mack is a lock to have at least a handful of solid games.

30. Lamar Smith, Carolina
Let's face the facts. Smith was a major disappointment with the Dolphins last year, running for 968 yards and just 3.1 yards per carry. Moving over to Carolina, which comes off a 1-15 disaster and drafted a running back with its second-round pick, doesn't bode well for this former 1,000-yard rusher.

31. William Green, Cleveland
A speed demon by nature, Green is one of several NFL draft picks who will get a shot to start in 2002. The Browns stand to be one of the most improved offenses and Green could be at the forefront of that leap. Keep an eye on him during training camp, because he could become Top 20 material by August.

32. Michael Pittman, Tampa Bay
Pittman ranks below Alstott because of his inability to find a way into the end zone. He couldn't do it with Arizona and won't get to the cones in Tampa, because the Bucs already have one of the game's best goalline backs. Pittman will be utilized much the way Garner was in Oakland.

33. Travis Henry, Buffalo
Henry struggled through not only nagging injuries, but an unsettled passing game and patchwork offensive line. The acquisition of Drew Bledsoe and several key off-season moves in the trenches takes care of two problems. The third is up to Henry to fix. Last year's 729-yard output was merely a jumping off point if he can stay on the field.

34. Duce Staley, Philadelphia
Staley went from the outhouse to the penthouse when Correll Buckhalter went down with a torn ACL. However, Philly's No. 1 back is not out of the woods yet, as the Eagles are still weighing their options with the next wave of roster cuts just around the corner. Under the assumption that Staley shares the work again, he's nothing more than an average No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy back.

35. Mike Anderson, Denver
Anderson moves to fullback in 2002 with the return of Davis, however, he still has value around the goalline and would stand to move up the charts if Denver's backfield struggles to stay healthy.

36. T.J. Duckett, Atlanta
A battering ram of a back who tips the scales at nearly 240 pounds, Duckett could be a one-man wrecking crew for Michael Vick & Co. Worth nothing more than a late-round flier, Duckett is a great sleeper pick because Dunn has never flourished as a No. 1 back.

37. DeShaun Foster, Carolina
Early reports indicate an open competition in Carolina for the starting job. Foster was the complete package at UCLA and has the moves to become a big-time NFL back.

38. Jamal Anderson, Atlanta
This one-time Dirty Bird is likely to be cashing checks in another city after June 1. Until that time, Anderson, coming off his second-major knee injury, is nothing more than a question mark.

39. Kevan Barlow, San Francisco
The health of Hearst will always be a concern, and Barlow did see significant action as a rookie (512 yards, four touchdowns). The combination provides Barlow with plenty of upside.

40. Tony Richardson, Kansas City
Touchdown Tony gets a majority of the goal line carries away from Holmes, giving him tremendous value in scoring leagues but little in those that count yardage.

41. Zack Crockett, Oakland
The only thing that needs to be said about Crockett is that he's scored 18 times over the last three years. He's a must-have back in scoring-only leagues.

42. LaMont Jordan, N.Y. Jets

With Martin firmly atop the Jets depth chart, Jordan will be nothing more than a change-of-pace back. However, his big-play potential (two touchdowns of at least 25 yards) makes him an intriguing fantasy prospect in deep leagues.

43. Tyrone Wheatley, Oakland
A must-have in touchdown only leagues, Wheatley's checkered injury history leaves much to be desired.

44. Ron Dayne, N.Y. Giants
His overall rushing numbers fell last year (770-690), however his touchdown total climbed (5-7). Dayne's a goal line back in the making.

45. James Allen, Houston
Allen never really ran far with the starting gig in Chicago, and running behind the offensive line of an expansion franchise won't exactly help him become a featured-back in the fantasy world.

46. Jonathan Wells, Houston
If you're not sold on Allen, Wells is No. 2 on the depth chart. At 6-2, he's a load to bring down and comes off a tremendous final season at Ohio State (1,294 yards rushing, 16 touchdowns). Count on Wells earning Houston's starting gig by season's end.

47. Ricky Watters, Free Agent
A one-time fantasy stud, Watters is floating around without a team at the moment and he may yet hang up his cleats. Still a dangerous back with is hands and feet, Watters could be a fantasy steal or bust depending on where he winds up in 2002. His string of six straight 1,000-yard seasons was snapped last year because of injury. He probably deserves to be ranked much higher, and will be if he suits up in Week 1.

48. Amos Zereoue, Pittsburgh
Shifty, speedy and quick, Zereoue is in line to set new career highs across the board if the Steelers decide to lighten the load on Bettis in 2002.

49. Clinton Portis, Denver
Yes, Denver does have what seems like 10 backs on the depth chart. So why did they burn a second-round pick in the draft on another? Not to sit around and watch from the sidelines, that's for sure. Portis is at least the Broncos No. 3 runner and could even take carries away from Andersen as well if he impresses in training camp.

50. Maurice Morris, Seattle
Speedy and shifty, Morris will provide a nice change of pace to Alexander. At this point, he's nothing more than a third-down back.

51. Ladell Betts, Washington
A behemoth of a back out of Iowa, Betts will backup Davis and could garner some carries near the goalline.

52. Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala, Pittsburgh
Depending on Bettis' status in 2002, Fuamatu-Ma'afala could return to his fullback position. If Bettis' workload is indeed lightened, Fuamatu-Ma'afala will be the beneficiary.

53. Trung Canidate, St. Louis
Canidate's job security in St. Louis is in question, with the drafting of Lamar Gordon in the third round. Keep an eye on this battle for the right to be Faulk's backup. It's the most important reserve job in fantasy football.

54. Richard Huntley, Free Agent
Huntley missed his window of opportunity with the Panthers and will not secure a starting spot as a free agent. He'll be lucky to be a serviceable backup from this point on.

55. Troy Hambrick, Dallas
Hambrick is a great backup to Smith, topping 100 yards twice a year ago, but the Dallas fill-in could fall on the depth chart if another, more seasoned back is brought in after June 1.

56. Jason Brookins, Baltimore
Brookins battled injury and the Ravens own offensive shortcomings, and now he has to deal with a healthy Lewis in the backfield. He makes a great bench player because of the concern surrounding Lewis' durability.

57. Dorsey Levens, Free Agent
Levens is still looking for work, but depending on the situation, he could produce plenty of receptions as a third-down back.

58. James Jackson, Cleveland
Jackson's job security was in trouble once Green was selected in the first round. And what makes his situation even worse is the fact that Butch Davis was his college coach. Has Davis already lost faith in his former collegiate star?

59. Shawn Bryson, Buffalo
Bryson shined when Henry went down, racking up 100-yard games in the final two games of 2001. However, it's still Henry's job to lose.

60. Richie Anderson, N.Y. Jets
Anderson isn't a threat to log carries, but the Jets do like to get him involved in the passing game. He has 128 receptions over the last two years, but stands to lose time with Jordan getting an increase in work.

61. Travis Minor, Miami
An effective third-down runner and change of pace back, Minor could blossom under Turner in Miami.

62. Leon Johnson, Chicago
The ultimate touchdown vulture, Johnson gets plenty of goal line carries and hit pay dirt four times in 2001.

Steve Siniski is the managing editor of Football Forecast and a senior editor for College & Pro Football Newsweekly.
 



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