Sun Woo Kim was one of the pitchers picked up by Montreal in the infamous Cliff Floyd-to-Boston deal. Readers of the Fantasy Baseball Review might remember my column there about the trade, called ?Conspiracy Theory?, that ripped the deal and the pitchers involved.

As far as Kim is concerned, I was wrong. This kid is good.

Kim started off the year with the Boston Red Sox, and did nothing to show he belonged there, with a 7.45 ERA in 15 appearances there (2 starts), before earning a demotion to AAA Pawtucket.

Something happened while he was down there, he learned how to pitch.

While with Pawtucket, Kim went 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA in eight starts, along with a 1.10 WHIP. Not bad. He was good in Pawtucket, but dominant in Ottawa, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.24 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP Next stop, Montreal, where he appeared in four games, three of which were starts. While with the Expos, all he did was put up an ERA of 0.89. He was not scored upon in his last 12 2/3 innings.

Kim will open the spring competing for the fifth slot in the rotation, behind Javier Vazquez, Tomo Ohka, Orlando Hernandez, and Tony Armas. With his only real competition, Zach Day, better suited for the pen than Kim, this should be his slot to lose. Having spent most of 2002 in the American League, Kim should be under the radar of most of the people in your league, and the uncertainty of his spot in the rotation will further depress his value. Use that to your advantage.

5) Kris Benson, Pittsburgh

9-6, with a 4.70 ERA last year, Benson doesn?t exactly look like much of a prize. Yet, those numbers are exactly why I am so excited about him. Those numbers will keep Benson a lot cheaper than he should really be.

Coming off of surgery, Benson struggled early, with an 0-3 May, where he also posted a 9.72 ERA. Ouch. June and July were a little better; 2-1, 4.25 ERA in June, and 2-1 with a 4.55 ERA in July. When August rolled around, Benson was back to the form that made him so great, going 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in August and 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA in September.

Before his injuries, the sky was the limit when it came to Benson?s ability. With a year of rehab under his belt, and two years removed from injury, Benson is ready to flash some of that previous potential.

Busts

1) Damian Moss, San Francisco

12-6, 3.42 Era ..those look like good numbers. So, why is he on this list? Well, when you take a closer look at the peripheral numbers, the wins and ERA look a lot more like luck then skill. What numbers? There were 79 pitchers in the National League to make at least 15 starts. Of those 79 starters, Moss had the 11th worst walk per nine innings ratio, walking 4.47 batters per 9. Comparing Moss to that same group of starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio, he had the ninth worst.

Why are these numbers important? These numbers give a far more accurate view of Moss talent, or lack thereof, outside of the teammates around him. Of the eight starters worse than Moss in K/BB ratio, only Denny Stark posted an ERA below 5.29. That is not a good sign. He will not come close to repeating that nice ERA, but someone will pay for him as if he will. Do not let it be you.

2) Preston Wilson, OF, Colorado

Chances are, you have at least one person that thinks this is the greatest match-up since Peanut Butter and Jelly. When you look at the home run numbers at home and away, you can see he has been hurt by the ballpark in Miami. A move to Coors should be perfect for him, right?

Not necessarily. For one thing, he has never shown he can hit in Coors. In 68 at-bats there in his career, not a huge sample, but not insignificant, he is hitting a measly .206 there. He also has just three home runs and five RBI in those at-bats. So far to date, his visits to Coors have been uneventful, at best.

More importantly, Coors Field will make a ball go farther, but the park does not make it any easier to make contact with the pitch. Ok, fine, I will concede that it does make it hard for pitchers to throw breaking balls, but a hitter that strikes out at sea level an awful lot will still do that a mile up. And Preston strikes out ? a lot. Wilson struck out 187 times in 2000, missing the record held by Bobby Bonds by just two strikeouts. In 2001, Wilson struck out 107 times. The whiffs continued last year, as he struck out 140 times. If Wilson walked a lot, that might offset the K totals a little, but he doesn?t ? Wilson averages a K/BB ratio of 3-to-1. If he was a pitcher, that would be very good. He isn't.

Without plate discipline, pitchers figure you out quickly, Coors Field effect or not. Wilson?s stats have dropped dramatically each of the last two years. While I am not saying he will not put up positive value (he will), the likelihood that you profit off of Wilson this year just isn?t there. There is way too much hype around Wilson with the Rockies for him to go for a reasonable salary. Don't overpay expecting Coors to make him a superstar. It simply won't happen.

3) A.J. Burnett, P, Florida

Now, I will admit, he did have a great year last year, statistically, but look a little beyond the numbers. Try these numbers:

112, 106, 124, 68, 125, 125, 105, 121, 117, 99, 115, 96, 116, 116, 128, 103, 127, 128, 94, 98, 81, 110, 132, 128, 93, 123, 117, 73, 96

What are those numbers...Those are the pitch counts last year for Burnett. Now, if he were a seasoned veteran with those pitch counts, they might possibly be reasonable. However, these pitch counts were thrown by a 25-year-old with a history of injuries. In fact, he was shut down in 2002 with an injury. Burnett pitched 17 games with a pitch out over 110, 10 with a pitch count over 120, and he finished second in the league in complete games. The game he threw 132 pitched, the Marlins won, 7-2, and no, he was not left in because the game was close early, as the Marlins scored 5 in the first inning.

The sad thing is, the Marlins brought him back to pitch in September, despite the arm problems and despite their games having no meaning whatsoever. They clearly have no clue in Miami about the effect of high pitch counts on young arms.

A.J. Burnett is a very talented young pitcher. However, he has yet to pitch a full year without at least one stint on the disabled list, and, considering the abuse piled upon his arm by the Marlins organization, I doubt he will make it through this year unscathed. Bid on his talent, but don?t bid on getting it for a full year or you?ll be burned.

4) Dave Roberts, OF, Los Angeles

Last year was a breakout year for Roberts, as he hit .277, with 63 runs and 45 stolen bases in his first chance to play everyday in his four-year career. Those are nice numbers to get out of your steals specialist, but is he really this good?

No.

When you take a deeper look into the numbers Roberts put up last year, other than a truly amazing May, where he hit .387 and stole 9 bases, he was a mediocre outfielder at best. July (.298) was the only other month of the season that he hit higher than .254. His on-base percentage, key for a lead-off speedster like Roberts, was never that impressive either, with a .320 or lower OBP for half the months of the season.

In Dave Roberts only other extended stay in the majors, 1999, with the Indians, Roberts hit just .238 in 143 at-bats. After his amazing first half of 2002, Roberts hit just .249 in the second half. Despite repeating Triple-A on numerous occasions, he never dominated there, and showed that he was, at best, destined for a career as a fourth outfielder.

While the end-result numbers look very good for Roberts in 2002, they really don?t show the whole picture. Roberts is far closer to the hitter we saw in the second half of the year than the one that tore up the National League in May. If you get him at a price worthy of those second half numbers, great; odds are, though, someone will end up paying for his first half success, and they will get burned doing so.

5) Sean Burroughs, 3B, San Diego

He won the Little League World Series for the US, and helped our country win a Gold Medal against the hated Cuban team. From a purely patriotic point of view, that's plenty reason to love Sean Burroughs.

From a fantasy point of view, though, there really isn't any.

Let us face the facts, people, he is only 22. As far as baseball is concerned, he is still a kid. When Burroughs came up last year, everyone was expecting immediate greatness out of him. He even went for $13 in Tout Wars, which, along with LABR, is one of the big two Expert Leagues?. He ended up hitting .271, and it was probably the hollowest .271 average ever seen in baseball, as he managed just one home run, 11 RBI, and 18 runs while with the big league club.

Sent back to AAA, he hit just .302, with 2 home runs, 23 RBI, and 18 runs. Those are not bad numbers for AAA until you look at his previous year?s totals - .322, 9 HR, 55 RBI, and 60 runs. If a prospect is forced to repeat at a level in the minors, that player should dominate the competition, not put up obviously inferior numbers.

That is not to say that Burroughs will not be a great player he will be someday, just not now. People will be once again tempted to throw money at him, believing the hype machine around him that says he is the next great third baseman. Forget the hype; wait for him to show something. So far, he has not.

Go to AL Sleepers and Busts

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