AL Sleepers and Busts by Chris Meyers
The focus of our attentions today is the American League, and who is out there in the categories of sleeper picks and busts. There used to be a status quo in baseball wherein the AL was the hitters league and the NL was the pitchers league. Unfortunately, there has been a shift in that which has left the AL as a poor cousin to the NL. Still rich with talent, the AL no longer dominates the offensive categories the way it used to. Regardless of that fact, there are a wide variety of interesting picks to be had in the AL as the guard is starting to change. It has never been more important to watch for the burgeoning young stars, or to avoid the players who will cost you far more than they will ever produce. Going into an AL only draft this weekend, here are some of the guys I will try to sneak through, and others that I will leave to some other poor sod. Remember, the best-informed manager going into a draft is already ahead of the competition.

Sleepers

Julio Zuleta, 1B Boston Red Sox
Still young enough to make a difference, Zuleta may prove to be one of the sharpest pickups the Sox have made in some time. Zuleta crushed the ball in the Mexican Pacific league, and will expect to start the season in AAA for Boston. With this 28 year old hitting his prime, all you need to do is look at his PCL numbers from last season - .293 with 31HR and 104 RBIs to see that he has something special. When the dust settles in Boston, Zuleta may well be the starter by the end of the regular season. Highly recommended if you have the room to sit on him.

Franklyn German, RP Detroit Tigers
Part of the booty Detroit received after sending Jeff Weaver to the Yankees; German is poised to become a closer of the (near) future in the AL. Matt Anderson is too injury prone and erratic to hold down the closer job, and German has some powerful stuff to bring to the table. The biggest concern for potential German owners is the Detroit starting situation as the Tigers have little to offer in that regard. What this translates to is a question regarding what kind of numbers you can expect from German. I may be going out on a limb here, but I believe that Franklyn has the potential for 25-30 saves. If you want to avoid a platoon closer situation in favor of a rookie, German is a great place to look.

Lance Carter, RP Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Sweet Lou loves this kid, and you can bet he will take the opportunity to bring Carter along in an intelligent manner. While Tampa is another team with pitching questions, at least they have Joe Kennedy at the top of their rotation. There are young pitchers in the pipeline, and the Rays will continue to shed salary as the remaining veterans are phased out. You can expect that Carter will be nurtured under the new regime, and right now it looks as though the plan is to bring him along as a closer. If you like rookies, this is another great place to start. While more than 25 saves in 2003 may be a long shot, you can expect more down the road. My advice is to buy early and buy cheap.

Travis Hafner, 1B Cleveland Indians
What was once a fantasy treasure trove has become a picked over wasteland, or has it? The mass exodus of star talent has had one positive effect for the Tribe as it offers an influx of quality talent at bargain prices. Hafner was squeezed out of the scene in Texas, but could become an excellent replacement for the departed Jim Thome. With the ability to hit .280 with 20+ HRs and 70+ RBIs at the major league level, Hafner is the kind of guy you would not mind sneaking through in a later round of the draft. The Tribe will still win games and put runs on the board ? Travis figures to be a big part of that.

Jason Arnold, P Toronto Blue Jays
Although Arnold will start the season in the minors, there is no way that he is staying there long. Arnold was acquired by the Blue Jays from the Athletics in the trade that sent Felipe Lopez to the Reds, Elmer Dessens to the Diamondbacks, and Erubiel Durazo to the A?s. Arnold was impressive in Double-A last year, with a 6-3 record and a 2.74 ERA. Arnold?s 8.48 K/9 shows promise; but his 3.94 BB/9 ratio shows that he does have some control issues to work on. Arnold is a great sleeper for you if you are willing to have a little patience and there is nothing of note blocking him from the Jays rotation, and he will be up very soon.

Busts

Hideki Matsui, OF New York Yankees
If Alex Cabrera came back to the U.S., how much would you bid for him? $1, $5 and $10? The Matsui calling card is home runs. Power. Alex Cabrera, a washed-out prospect from the Diamondbacks, outhomered him in Japan. Let us run though some of the successful power hitters in Japan... Cabrera, Tuffy Rhodes, Randy Bass. Nope, nothing to get excited about there; so, why, then, is everyone going crazy over Matsui? Matsui will be a good outfielder in the American League, sure, but he will go for far more than he will be worth because people are buying the hype. I recommend you take a pass.

Jose Contreras, P New York Yankees
So after years and years of every Cuban pitcher lying about their age, why are we supposed to believe it when he says he is 32? He sure does look a lot older than that, doesn't he? Contreras has never faced major league action in a live game. There is no telling how good or how bad he truly will be, yet everyone acts like he is Roger Clemens. He has struggled mightily in his first two spring training appearances. He is not even guaranteed a spot in the rotation. Do not go crazy for him until he shows a reason for it. So far, he has not.

Kevin Millar, OF Boston Red Sox
With the way all the hype has been going this spring surrounding his coming to Boston, you?d think he was A-Rod. He is not. What he is, though, is a serviceable outfielder that will get 450 at bats in the crowded Boston line-up, hit around .300, and drive in some runs. He has not done anything special. Somehow, though, the drama surrounding him made people think he was. Do not buy into the over hype, buy on talent.

Adam Kennedy
There is nothing worse than getting into a bidding war over a post-season hero. His walks went down, his strikeouts up, and yet he hit almost 50 points higher. That is called a fluke. He will return to the norms he has put up so far in his career, which are nice, but nowhere near what people will be bidding for him.

Mike MacDougal
Odds are, he will enter the season as the closer. That does not mean he will hold that for long. The hype around MacDougal is that he was excellent in his stint in the Winter Leagues as a closer. However, the winter leagues are not the majors, and MacDougal has yet to demonstrate any level of control at a major league level. At Triple-A last year, MacDougal walked 55 batters, while striking out just 30, in 53 innings. That is not major league closer material there. The fact is, both Ryan Bukvich and Jeremy Hill are more talented, and if and when MacDougal falters, either Bukvich or Hill will step right in and take over.