Lessons from Toutwars by Mike Lombardo
Mike Lombardo is 3 time winner of Toutwars NL Expert League

Thanks to an invitation from Al O’Harra, I’ll be competing in the NL version of the expert FSIC league this coming March. Al extended the invitation because of my record of successes in many different fantasy baseball competitions and specifically because I’ve been fortunate enough to win NL Toutwars three out of the last four years.

By the way, the name Toutwars was chosen by the powers behind it as a way to indicate that it was a battle of baseball touts for fantasy supremacy, a tout being someone who is paid for his(her) point of view regarding players and/or strategies.

Frankly, I accepted the invite blindly, simply because competing against skilled opponents has always been a rush for me. When I say, blindly, I’m referring to the fact that I didn’t even bother to read the league rules. So, what’s the difference? A single league is a single league, right?

Well, not so fast. When I finally did read the rules, I realized that the only thing both leagues had in common was that they were NL only. Let me highlight the differences.

To begin with, FSIC is a draft whereas Tout is an auction. No doubt, the draft option was chosen because it has become the overwhelmingly favorite way teams acquire their players. While this is so, auctions demand greater skill, from having accurate player values, to adjusting those values on the fly to reflect what’s happening at the table, and finally, the end game where having that extra dollar or three can result in grabbing that last decent bat at a given position. The skills needed to be a successful auction player are above and beyond any others that are required to be successful. As a skilled auction player, I shall miss that aspect of the competition.

The second major difference is the way each league deals with Free Agents (FAs). Unlike Toutwars, and most other leagues, FSIC does not use a device called the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) to acquire these players. This budget is given in imaginary dollars equally to all teams to start the season. Instead, each week, FAs are acquired in the reverse order of the standings on an iterative basis, meaning that the team in last place cannot take a second FA until all teams above them in the standings have had a chance to select their player. The process is repeated until no more claims for FAs are made that week.

FAAB is used in a weekly Free Agent auction, where FA’s are awarded to the highest eMail bidder, irrespective of league standings, except to break ties. This method makes a given FA attainable by any team, as long as they have the dollars in their account, and use it to outbid other teams. The amount of each successful bid is then deducted from the winning team’s account.

FSIC’s method of handling FAs is beneficial in the first months of the season, since it gives those teams who have started out poorly a chance to re-enter the competition with a judicious acquisition or two. However, as the season progresses, those teams in close pursuit of the league leader are at a distinct disadvantage since it is very hard for them to acquire the FAs they need to climb in the standings, while allowing those teams who are hauling up the rear to add players whose contribution will not directly affect the final standings.

The FSIC method requires no skill beyond player knowledge. Managing and maximizing the use of one’s FAAB is a distinct skill above and beyond that knowledge. It adds yet another dimension to the competition and I would recommend changing the FSIC Constitution to incorporate its use in 2010 to reflect its popularity in the fantasy community.

The third major difference is that Toutwars allows for an unlimited number of injured reserve spots on a team’s roster for players who are on the Major League Disabled List and is separate from a team’s reserve squad. This rule is an attempt to lessen the blow of bad luck. While no rule can offset the loss of a stud player, having the ability to add another player until the injured one returns is some help. Having to release players who are hurt simply because you have no more room on your reserve squad is grossly unfair and distorts the competition. I recommend this change as well for 2010.

The final major difference is that in Toutwars, any FA acquired must spend the week following his acquisition on a team’s active squad. This rule prevents what I call “churning”, that is, grabbing almost any viable FA with the hope of catching lightening in a bottle. If he doesn’t pan out, or is sent down, simply replace him by continuing the process. Forcing a team to keep the acquired player active for a week, greatly diminishes this unfair practice that has positive implications, especially in very deep leagues such as NL/AL FISC where the talent pool is quite thin. Again, this is a common sense rule that should also be implemented in 2010. 

I’ve gone through these differences with a purpose. Put yourself in my shoes as I face unknown competition in a format that is quite different from that which I’m accustomed. How can I translate my Toutwars successes into success in the FSIC? Do I adopt similar strategies, or should I modify some of them to deal with these rules differences?

In order to explore these questions, let me summarize the essence of the strategies that I’ve successfully employed in Toutwars. The cornerstone of that success has been to focus on pitching, Each of my winning teams has dominated the pitching categories, culminating with a devastating 62 out of 65 possible points in 2007 (there are 13 teams in NL Toutwars). Paying for Saves is an important part of that strategy; one that flies in face of conventional wisdom. The rationale behind a pitching oriented strategy is that if you can finish in the middle of the pack offensively, then your overwhelming pitching will see you to victory.

On the offensive side, where power is always overvalued, look for speed and batting average. In a deep league like this, look for at bats; a mediocre full time player is USUALLY more valuable than almost any part timer (see below). And, finally, seek out and acquire the better catchers. Let’s look at this last strategy first.

Yet another difference between FSIC and Toutwars is that the former requires only one catcher and the number of offensive players carried is thirteen instead of fourteen. This reduction in roster is significant. With only half the catching slots to fill, every team can have one of the primary catchers from one of the NL teams. Therefore, the imperative to grab the better catchers is greatly diminished in FSIC for that reason, although the spread between the best catchers and the worst is still significant.

The focus on pitching does not need to be altered. However, the method used to assemble a strong staff needs to be thought out in advance. Specifically, such strategy revolves around the question of where in the draft to begin building your rotation and the timing of acquiring closer(s).

There are somewhere between 25-30 premium offensive players in the NL. In order to compete on offense, you must take two of them with the first two picks. With the number three pick overall, I’m assured of getting one of the top offensive players. But even the pick on the way back (number 22), a stud offensive player should still be there. Now, the number 27 pick becomes a judgment call whether to go pitching or offense. It depends on who’s available more than a question of strategy.

It should be obvious that punting categories is not sound strategy. It merely gives an edge to your competition. But, sometimes, it happens that you lose your big steals guy or your stud closer. In that case, you may be forced, in season, to punt a category, but you should never leave a draft unbalanced so that you are forced to consider doing so.

As the draft proceeds into the later rounds, the focus on offense is simply to find either at bats, or “niche” part timers. A player who may only get 300 ABs during the season, but who may steal 15 – 20 bases could address a team weakness and is therefore a desirable pick, even though there may be other players available who will see more playing time. As a corollary to this rule, some platooned players may have special value, even though they are not expected to see full time duty. Recognizing that you not all of your players will be full timers allows you to snag such a player while there are mediocre full timers still on the board. In a case in point from last year’s NL Toutwars’ auction, I brought up Jayson Werth early on, when there was lots of money available and teams were less inclined to “settle” for a part time player. I paid $4 for him.

Beyond what I’ve already stated regarding pitching, the building of a staff is a judgment call made at the table. However, I repeat that I will not neglect my efforts to build a solid one.

Not having the ability to place disabled players on injured reserve dictates a major change in strategy for me. In Toutwars, I would not hesitate to bid on an injured player or acquire them in the reserve round (via snake draft) because I knew I could replace such players during the first pre-season free agent auction. Now, such speculations are at best, a luxury, and, at worst, a recipe for failure when the real injuries hit. But, beyond that, the need to avoid injury prone players becomes much more acute. With a relatively small reserve squad (five), such precautions are necessary.

I will continue to use my reserve squad to warehouse either players who I can slot in my lineup due to injury or poor performance and undrafted players who will start the season in the minors, but who may have an immediate impact if called up.

Competing against Al and the other participants will be a challenge. Although I have done about a dozen drafts, I’ve never done one in a NL/AL only league. I also suffer from the disadvantage of having to reveal my strategy prior to the draft in this article, while my competition did not. Of course, there are things that I could have stated, but didn’t. I mean I do have to beat these guys.

In any case, the FSIC is always looking for the best of the best. Maybe Mike will compete with us in future years.

You are welcome to review FSRU.com Rotisserie, Head to Head and Auction leagues.