2006 NBA Rookie Impact by
Steve Siniski
As difficult as it is to forecast production for NFL rookies, the NBA is far worse. Because playing time can often be decided on a coach’s whim, or whether or not the doghouse happens to be empty at a particular time—see Nate Robinson, N.Y. Knicks—charting rookie progress can sometimes be more difficult than fishing with an empty line in the ocean. The 2006 NBA rookie class offers a wide variety of talents, although few can be expected to have the types of impact others enjoyed in recent years. I have put together a list of the biggest rookie names, as well as the most likely to contribute in 2006 and beyond.
1. Andrea Bargnani, C, Toronto (Round 1-Pick
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As far as No. 1 overall draft picks go, Bargnani is not the next LeBron, but he should turn out better than Kenyon Martin in the long run. He’ll play immediately for the undersized Raptors, and aside from being seven feet tall, Bargnani’s able to step back and shoot the three. This flexibility makes him a cheaper fantasy version of Mehmet Okur, and a more than serviceable fantasy player. A long shot for rookie of the year honors, Bargnani is still worthy of a few fantasy bucks or a draft pick once you hit the double-digit rounds.
The Trail Blazers enter 2006 as one of the youngest teams in the NBA after drafting five rookies to go along with Jarrett Jack, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw. Clearly a work in progress, Portland’s a lock to try more combinations than a Rubik’s cube during the season. As such, Aldridge’s playing time will bounce up and down more than the ball on a Friday night at the Rose Garden. Zach Randolph currently sits in front of Aldridge on the depth chart at power forward, but the Blazers have been trying to move his tail for eons. Incoming center Jamaal Maglorie only crowds a power forward/center position that includes Joel Pryzbilla and Raef LaFrentz. Aldridge is more of a long-term fantasy prospect than the short term, so don’t buy into the hype of his No. 2 Draft status…at least in 2006-07.
Ladies and gentlemen, become acquainted with the 2006-07 NBA Rookie of the Year. Everybody loves pure scorers, and that’s exactly what Morrison is. He led the NCAA in scoring as a senior, and playing all four years of college ball gets Morrison a step ahead of the pack. The Bobcats were desperate for scoring punch, and the addition of Morrison should open up some space on the interior for Emeka Okafor. Talk about killing two birds with one long-range stone. Draft him in the early to middle rounds, expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 points per game and solid shooting percentages. Defense is still foreign to Morrison, but who’s complaining?
Having had their fill of Tyson Chandler, the Bulls decided to remake the key components of their frontcourt. Ben Wallace jumped Detroit’s ship, while Thomas came over from Portland in a Draft Day trade. The biggest obstacle in Thomas’ way is veteran P.J. Brown, another off-season acquisition. A pro’s pro, Brown is much like Wallace in his blue-collar approach. Unfortunately, while Brown and Wallace are more of the defensive-type, so too is Thomas, who’s offensive game still needs to be refined. Head coach Scott Skiles may reward hustle in practice, and you can’t knock Thomas’ hustle. But the Bulls have so many combo players that can slide up and down the lineup—Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Mike Sweetney, fellow rookie Thabo Sefolosha—Thomas will max out at a mere 10-15 minutes per game.
Until Al Harrington gets traded, it’s not a good idea to break the bank on Williams. There’s only so many spots in the frontcourt, and the Hawks have one of the deepest and youngest groups in the NBA. From Harrington to Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Josh Smith and Zaza Pachulia, Atlanta has a ton of athleticism. While Smith and Childress can get some run in the backcourt, don’t forget about Joe Johnson or Speedy Claxton.
Surprise! Kevin Garnett doesn’t have to do everything on his own anymore. The lack of a supporting cast took its toll on Garnett, specifically the lack of production from the point guard slot. Acquiring Foye in a draft day deal gives the Wolves a four-year college baller who can be a steady hand with the rock. More likely to start at the off-guard than point because of Mike James, Foye’s MVP performance at the Vegas Summer League was a huge shot in the arm for the Minnesota coaching staff. The well-rounded combo guard has instant fantasy cred, even if he lasts until the later stages of most drafts. His ability to penetrate and score will help him average at least 10 points per game.
The Blazers lineup is cluttered with youth and little in the way of proven commodities. The 2006 Draft netted five rookies, but Roy may be the standout of the group. Fellow rookie LaMarcus Aldridge may struggle for playing time, but Roy has already been assigned the starting role at the two-guard. And in the early summer camps, he more than justified the lofty position. An all-around player capable of filling up every column in the box score, Roy will battle Adam Morrison and Rudy Gay for Rookie of the Year honors. The Blazers have an unseasoned point guard in Jarrett Jack, a potential mess at small forward in Darius Miles and Travis Outlaw and far too many big bodies that don’t offer much scoring up front. Roy will be counted on for points—and just about anything else he can give--on a regular basis. Major minutes and major fantasy potential lie ahead. Don’t be afraid to draft Roy in the middle rounds. He’s a can’t-miss superstar in the making.
Eddie Jones is aging, the return of Stromile Swift is nothing to get excited about and the point guard situation is a muddled mess of injury-prone veterans. Yes, Gay steps into the type of lineup where he’ll make a run at Rookie of the Year honors. Playing alongside Pau Gasol will keep some of the defensive heat off, and Gay’s inside-out game should flourish under Mike Fratello. If any coach is going to breakdown Gay’s reputation for being unmotivated, it’ll be the hard-fisted Fratello. Jerry West’s eye for talent is legendary, and Gay continues the tradition. He’ll fall just shy of averaging a double-double and warrants a middle round pick.
A draft pick for the future, O’Bryant shouldn’t get many fantasy owners excited, unless it’s a Dynasty League. If he even sees more than five minutes per game in the Warriors stacked frontcourt, that will be an accomplishment. Don’t waste any time on him when building a fantasy team.
What? A 7-footer for the third straight season? The other two first-round giants (Robert Swift and Johan Petro) have yet to pan out as expected, so the Sonics had to go to the far reaches of the world for Sene. Just goes to show how valuable size is. As far as fantasy prospects, there are none here in the foreseeable future at least. Spend your draft dollars or late-round draft pick somewhere else. At best, Sene will be a poor man’s Adonal Foyle, and that’s not going to offer much in terms of fantasy production.
Redick battled Morrison for the NCAA scoring title last season, but he doesn’t offer the same potential in the NBA. Unlike Morrison who can create off the dribble, penetrate or play on the inside, Redick is a spot-up shooter who needs to get the ball in proper position. Be afraid, be very afraid. The NBA is full of great shooters that come in for a few minutes at a time, so don’t waste money on a rookie if you want three-pointers or shooting percentages. Redick has first-round bust written all over him.
Don’t look now, but the Hornets have put together a solid nucleus of young players and added sharpshooting Peja Stojakovic on the wing, along with Tyson Chandler up front. Armstrong fell a little in the NBA Draft, and his fantasy value isn’t as great as others in his class. The starting frontcourt is set with Stojakovic, David West and Chandler, meaning Armstrong’s playing time is already a question mark. And once he does get on the floor, the main reason will be for defense. Aside from some blocks and boards, Armstrong’s value is limited.
All the talk about foreign players centered on Bargnani at the top and the surprising Saer Sene at No. 10. Sefalosha, however, has to be considered a sleeper heading into his rookie year. The 6-6 swingman is of the same mold as Andres Nocioni, a jack of all trades, master of none. The strength of Sefalosha’s game is defense, and that alone should provide him regular opportunities to rack up steals and some blocks with his long frame. A draft-and-stash player, Sefalosha is a great reserve as rosters are rounded out. If fantasy small ball is your game, Sefalosha should be part of the plans.
The Kings had a clear need for some scoring punch after trading Stojakovic for Ron Artest. What better way to address the hole than the drafting of Douby, the Big East’s leading scorer (25.4 points per game)? At 6-3, Douby will have one job—fill the nets. A solid shooter inside and out, the rookie improved across the board in each of his three seasons at Rutgers. His percentages are outstanding, especially at the free-throw line, and the playing time is his for the taking. John Salmons, recently acquired from Philadelphia, and Kevin Martin are the two biggest threats for Douby to worry about. Like we said, the job is Douby’s to win.
Williams is a far better selection for keeper league owners than those who redraft. The rookie’s role will be similar to that of a backup quarterback’s—hold the clipboard, take notes and study lots of film. Sure, Williams will get some decent time as the Nets look to keep Jason Kidd fresh, but he won’t log more than 10-15 minutes per night. And even if coach Lawrence Frank swears Kidd’s going to see more pine time than ever before, he did say the same thing last season. And Kidd still averaged 37.2 minutes per game.
Boone is going to miss a huge chunk of his rookie campaign after recent shoulder surgery. He’s not worth drafting in one-year leagues, but there is a sliver of keeper league value. Once he gets onto the floor, Boone offers rebounding and shot-blocking prowess. His offensive game still needs work, but the Nets already have an abundance of scorers in Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and Kidd. Boone’s career begins as a role player.
The Grizzlies got a defensive-minded point guard capable of becoming an NBA-caliber starter. The odds of Lowry seeing the floor as a rookie are quite strong. Memphis starter Damon Stoudamire is coming back from a ruptured right patella tendon, while Bobby Jackson has proven to be a solid sixth man but equally as injury prone.
Seeing how much time Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko have spent sidelined by injuries, grabbing Millsap was a great move for the Jazz. The only player to ever lead the NCAA in rebounding for three consecutive seasons (12.5, 12.4, 13.3), the rookie had a solid showing in the Rocky Mountain Revue, averaging a healthy nine boards per game. He may not provide points, but the rebounding and opportunity to get on the court will be there.
Steve Siniski is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association