2006 NFL Sleepers Steve Siniski

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco (FSRU Position Rank #22, Overall Rank #31)

Running back battles in training camp are always the sort of Must-See-TV NBC should pencil into its August lineup. There’s plenty of material to fill a one-hour time slot with New Orleans (Deuce McAllister/Reggie Bush), Indianapolis (Dominic Rhodes/Joseph Addai), Denver (Ron Dayne/Tatum Bell), Chicago (Thomas Jones/Cedric Benson) and Tennessee (Chris Brown/LenDale White/Travis Henry) all trying to choose one workhorse from the ranks. The most intriguing is out in San Francisco, where the winner has a chance to post strong fantasy numbers under the “Good Player/Bad Team” philosophy. Any type of improvement in the won/loss column would be enough to satisfy Niners fans who had to suffer through a 4-12 2005 campaign that was brutal on so many levels.

Enter Gore, who’s not going to be a franchise savior (that honor falls on the shoulders of quarterback Alex Smith), but should emerge as a featured back. In order for the passing game to succeed, someone has to make defenses at least pretend to quake in their boots when a handoff is occurring. Kevan Barlow clearly forgot how to be that type of runner, disappointing legions of San Francisco fans and fantasy owners after a 1,024-yard campaign in 2003. Since that magical alignment of the stars and moon, Barlow hasn’t topped 850 yards in the two years since and is finally on the verge of kissing his starting job goodbye. Gore, now nearly two years removed from a torn ACL suffered while playing for the Miami Hurricanes, flies under the fantasy radar because he doesn’t have the top job sewn up just yet.

His close to 2005 was solid, as he ran for 355 yards and two touchdowns, helping San Francisco win two of the final three games. That’s correct, the Niners ended the year on a winning streak. So Gore didn’t rack up yardage in blowout losses, he didn’t rack up those yards when defenses were keying on the passing game and he didn’t rack up yardage with his team nursing a big lead. In fact, the final three games were decided by a grand total of eight points. Oh by the way, he didn’t even start the final two games, but assumed the lead role. In 2006, the Niners will have a 1,000-yard rusher in their backfield.

Laurence Maroney, RB, New England (38, 75)

New England head coach Bill Belichick always drafts with a purpose. Even if his selections may go against the grain or seem out of line with team needs, it’s hard to argue with the decisions in the long run. Corey Dillon’s coming off a solid year in the end zone, tying his career-high with a dozen scores. But astute fantasy owners can see the end of the line coming from Dillon. Don’t let his touchdown totals with New England—24 in two years—fool you. He hasn’t played a full season since 2002, and his 209 carries last year were the second fewest of his nine-year career. Injuries also limited Dillon’s explosiveness through the hole (two 20-yard carries), and he set a career low with a 3.5-yards-per-carry average.

A rookie running back’s first-year progress is always tough to forecast if he’s not stepping into a starting role, and the rule applies here. At the very least, Maroney’s going to be a key cog between the 20-yard lines, because it’s quite clear Dillon is no longer capable of racking up 300-carry seasons. And truthfully, Belichick is no stranger to splitting the load. Kevin Faulk is still hanging around as the third-down back, a role expected to diminish considerably. Maroney’s best attribute is his size (5-11, 205), but he’s also developed as a pass receiver, another benefit in New England’s conservative attack. Holding more value in yardage leagues, rather than scoring leagues because of Dillon, Maroney’s still one of the better bets for long-term success and someone to draft and stash. Once the suddenly injury-prone Dillon comes up with a tweak, pull or strain, Maroney becomes the man. You just have to read through the elusive Belichick’s injury reports to know when to insert Maroney into the lineup…and that’s a whole write-up for another day.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants (44, 87)

No team had better balance in the end zone than the Giants. Tiki Barber paced the team with 11 touchdowns, but Jacobs made efficient use of his 38 carries to finish in a four-way tie for second with seven. Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress also had seven scores. Few players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 times they carried the ball—not even the immortal Larry Johnson had that type of success rate.

The older Barber gets, and the more hits he takes only benefits Jacobs, No. 2 on the running back depth chart. Though Jacobs’ size (6-4, 256) makes him the perfect complement to Barber as Big Blue’s short-yardage back, Jacobs does have above-average speed for his size. Plus, he knows what life as a back-up is all about. A former Auburn Tiger, he transferred to Southern Illinois once Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown became big-time studs in the Tigers backfield. Even as a part-time back he has plenty of value than some of the other backups in the league.

Drew Bledsoe, QB, Dallas (14, 102)

Combine a strong-armed quarterback with one of the NFL’s most dynamic receivers and you have one potent fantasy combination. Bledsoe’s 2005 campaign, his best since 2002, happened despite a lackluster running game (3.9 yards per carry, 11 touchdowns) and aging crew of wideouts. Not to knock Terry Glenn, who turned in his first 1,000-yard season since last century (1999), but he’s no Terrell Owens. Bledsoe and Glenn hooked up for seven plays of more than 40 yards and seven touchdowns, any idea what the younger, stronger, Owens is capable of?

OK, back to Bledsoe. As fragile as many people seem to believe the lead-footed Bledsoe is, few quarterbacks can claim to be as durable. Amazingly enough, Bledsoe, now 34, hasn’t missed a game since 2001—you know, when Tom Brady burst on the scene—and thrown at least 20 touchdowns in three of the last four years. Perhaps the last time Bledsoe had a chance to work with a receiver of Owens’ caliber was 1996. Who was the player? A rookie named Terry Glenn who pulled down 90 balls, while tight end Ben Coates grabbed 62. Yes, the ‘Boys have a potent one-two punch in Owens and Glenn, and let’s not forget about tight end Jason Witten. If ever head coach Bill Parcells were going to feel comfortable with an offense in Dallas, this is it. Any hint of a running game, or any sort of improvement by Julius Jones, only opens up space for the passing game to operate.

Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville (39, 126)

Jacksonville has much different plans for Jones than the Pittsburgh Steelers did for Kordell Stewart or Antwaan Randle El. Unlike the Steel Crew, converted Stewart and Randle El into jack-of-all-trades and masters of none, the Jags are eager to turn Jones into their top wide receiver. Seeing the way the franchise’s No. 1 pick, Reggie Williams, has flopped, Jones definitely fills a need.

Size isn’t an issue, even though the former signal-caller is built more like a tight end (6-6, 229). His first year has to be considered a success after he finished third on Jacksonville with 36 catches, 432 yards and five scores. With Jimmy Smith out the picture, the top job is there for the taking. From the field to the stat sheet, Jones improved significantly from Week 1 to Week 17. The full season of repetitions and practice with the first-team offense became apparent down the stretch. He closed the year with a six-catch, 94-yard performance against New England and hauled in a 41-yard reception. Of his 36 catches, 23 gained a first down and five went for more than 20 yards, the types of numbers few could have imagined for any player entering the professional ranks at a brand new position. He even ran for 51 yards on 12 carries for good measure. When roster are beginning to be filled and the starting rotation is set, Jones is the type of player who offers excellent potential and production at a discounted price.

Joe Jurevicius, WR, Cleveland (42, 134)

Underrated throughout his previous eight NFL seasons, Jurevicius heads to his hometown Browns, offering two qualities the franchise has lacked—a winning attitude and stability at wide receiver. Name a young quarterback that wouldn’t welcome a 10-touchdown receiver from a Super Bowl participant. Jurevicius filled in for Darrell Jackson, easily setting career highs in receptions (55) and touchdowns (10). In fact, the two-time Super Bowl winner scored a combined 11 times in the previous four years.

It’s going to take Braylon Edwards time to get back to normal after tearing an ACL late last year, and Kellen Winslow II is looking to get back on the field for the first time in two seasons. Jurevicius is a tried-and-true professional with size to be Frye’s top red zone target (6-5, 230) and the speed to rip off big plays and keep the chains moving forward.

Others to consider…

Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans (16, 21)

How can a second-round pick be a sleeper, especially when his main competition is threatening to hold out? The answer, when that competition is all-world rookie Reggie Bush. Ranked high on this list to start, McAllister could return to the field in 2006 as if no other running back even threatened his job during the off-season.

Kellen Winslow II, TE, Cleveland (8 ,95)

In your draft, Winslow could be forgotten at a tight end position that has become deeper in recent seasons. After nearly two years on the sideline, however, Winslow is ready to realize the potential that made Cleveland select him No. 6 overall in the 2004 NFL Draft.

Roddy White, WR, Atlanta (46, 145)

Sooner or later some Falcons receiver has to be more effective than tight end Alge Crumpler.

Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit (25, 188)

A steady veteran quarterback teamed up with potentially explosive wide receivers and a mad scientist as an offensive coordinator (Mike Martz). If Kitna booms, he’ll be a fantasy goldmine.

Chris Simms, QB, Tampa Bay (26, 190)

Young quarterback, young offense and the creative Jon Gruden as head coach. There’s so much to like about Simms’ situation knowing Gruden’s track record.

Travis Henry, RB, Tennessee (62, 192)

Recent rumors have Chris Brown demanding a change of scenery. Henry could become the yardage king if Tennessee trims the backfield rotation to just two.

Steve Siniski is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association.