Comeback Player Candidates by Jeremie Ballinger

Have you ever seen an injury bug? Has anyone you know ever seen an injury bug? Of course not, yet this creature is the Loch Ness Monster of baseball, a mystical character whose impact is all too real (read: Barry Bonds) for countless real and fantasy managers. When the bug leaves, the player is not the same. Usually, the injury bug leaves behind a bad reputation, one that scares off the average owner. But in many cases, players rebound from injury and reclaim their perch in the fantasy world. This year, there are several players who should still be productive, even though the injury bug has taken them off the fantasy radar. Find the right comeback player, and your draft will turn from ho-hum to high-caliber. We’ll take a complete trip around the diamond, with players who met the injury bug last year and are candidates to bounce back in 2006.

C Johnny Estrada, Arizona

Injuries are rarely self-inflicted, but few are as opponent-inflicted as the blow that derailed Estrada’s 2005 campaign. A hard collision at the plate knocked Estrada out of the lineup and, after Brian McCann’s emergence in his absence, basically out of Atlanta altogether. Estrada is in Arizona now, keeping the tools of ignorance warm while another prospect (Miguel Montero) gets at-bats on the farm. Estrada didn’t do much to follow up his breakout 2004 season, but he is still a serviceable bat who should be drafted as a No. 2 catcher or a starter in NL-only formats.

1B Jim Thome, Chicago (AL)

The Thome 2005 campaign resembled Estrada’s in several ways. Like Estrada, Thome struggled at the start of the year (.207/7/30 in 59 games), then became injured, and finally found himself traded after a young stud took his place in the lineup. While Thome will miss hitting in Citizens Bank Park, he was traded to one of the better situations he could have found. He’s now back in the American League, in the middle of a very potent White Sox lineup. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago when Thome was a top five 1B. You can’t wait long to make the move, but whenever you take Thome you will have a value pick on your hands.

2B Jose Vidro, Washington

Vidro played only 87 games in 2005 due to an injured knee, posting a .275 average with seven homers and 32 RBI. After rehabbing his knee, he must now compete with Alfonso Soriano for the second base job in Washington. Rumors abound that Vidro will play in the WBC for Puerto Rico, so the competition and the fact that he hits in a huge ballpark should be larger hurdles to overcome than his injury. He is not the offensive force he was in hitter-friendly Olympic Stadium, but is still worth taking as a low-level starter or formidable flex player.

3B Scott Rolen, St. Louis

Just a year ago, Rolen was being taken extremely high in drafts and was counted on to help carry St. Louis back to the World Series. But after 56 disappointing games to open his season (.235/5/28), a shoulder injury sidelined him for good. Rolen is healthy once again, and will prove to be a bargain pick to whoever gets him. Rolen will resume his place in the heart of the Cardinal lineup, and should produce for your team.

SS Clint Barmes, Colorado

If a vote had been taken after a third of the 2005 season, Barmes might have been a unanimous NL Rookie of the Year pick. But suddenly, a mysterious ordeal with a package of deer meat led to a broken collarbone and a three-month DL stint. Barmes returned late in the year but didn’t find the groove he once had. Based on his career numbers and playing 81 games in Coors Field, you have to keep Barmes in mind on draft day. His 2005 numbers suggested a 20-homer, 90-RBI season. Anything remotely close to that, and you’ll have a mid-round steal at shortstop.

LF Barry Bonds, San Francisco

Bonds is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward option in your draft. Can you count on Barry to finish his assault on Hank Aaron’s record this season? Or will his knee and back problems resurface, submarining your chances at a fantasy title? Bonds did return to action late in 2005 with little holding him back, and he has bypassed the World Baseball Classic so he can take dead aim at Hammerin’ Hank. My hunch is that Bonds has one good year left in him — and good by Bonds’ standards means he would easily be the best value in your draft.

CF Milton Bradley, Oakland

Torii Hunter is another option here, but Bradley is the most intriguing. Not only is Bradley making his way back from knee surgery, but apparently he is certifiably insane as well. Now free from L.A. and the shadow of alleged racist Jeff Kent, Bradley has another chance to let his talent shine, this time in Oakland. The Athletics’ trainers insist he will be ready for opening day. Because clubhouse chemistry is not a fantasy category, you shouldn’t feel worried about taking Bradley in the middle rounds. He should produce very well against AL pitching as long as he doesn’t go Ugie Urbina on anyone.

RF Magglio Ordonez, Detroit

It seems like everything short of syphilis has sidelined Ordonez in recent years. First it was a knee injury in 2004; then a sports hernia sidelined the Detroit slugger. What is known about Maggs is that when he plays, he plays very well. He is no longer a threat to steal after his knee trouble, and playing in Detroit will limit his power numbers. But Ordonez has plenty of productivity left in his bat, and can give you a much-needed power surge in your outfield.

SP Roy Halladay, Toronto

Through 19 starts, Halladay was on his way to a monster year (12-4, 2.41 ERA, .94 WHIP). But then the injury bug hit in the form of a broken leg. Halladay has been thought of as an injury candidate for years due to his heavy workload, so this injury could be a blessing for the Blue Jays. Halladay’s arm is obviously still intact, and he is not taxed by his customary 200-plus inning season. Doc is still the best pitcher in the AL not named Johan Santana. If Toronto’s free-agent pickups provide as much run support as advertised, Halladay should have no trouble getting to 20 wins and challenging for the Cy Young.

RP Eric Gagne, Los Angeles (NL)

Gagne ruined a lot of fantasy seasons last year. His elbow came up lame after only 14 appearances, and the All-Star was shut down by season-ending elbow surgery in June. While any surgery to a throwing arm is a huge red flag, encouragement should be taken from the fact that the surgery was not reconstructive as first feared. The Mad Canadian will be in camp this spring, and looks to resume closer duties from Day One. He is a risk, but by taking Gagne you will definitely get a few “good pick” comments from owners who lack the cajones to pull the trigger.

Jeremy Ballinger is a PFS American League Correspondent

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