Key Free Agent Moves by Jeremie Ballinger and Brooks Peck
If
you've made it to this article, you're here for two reasons: 1) to meet the new
ace baseball writer for FSRU; and 2) now that Super Sunday is upon us and
you're a month away from a fantasy baseball draft, it's time to start cramming.
First, I'll spare you the boring introduction. All you need to know is the
professor is in. While you've been giving in to your football addiction, I've
been tapped into the baseball world like an FBI agent would (allegedly) listen
to your phone calls. Consider this your ticket to keeping up with the Joneses
of fantasy baseball (remember, Todd's in
AMERICAN
LEAGUE
--
Key Additions: C Ramon
Hernandez, 1B Kevin Millar, OF Corey Patterson, P Kris Benson, P LaTroy Hawkins
Overall,
the lineup does not gain a huge boost by their offseason
additions, especially if Javy Lopez is traded before
the season starts. Millar, Hernandez and Patterson are slated to fill the
Key Losses: RP B.J. Ryan,
1B Rafael Palmeiro, P Jorge Julio, OF Sammy Sosa
Ryan
was a steady stopper in the O’s pen and will be missed. However, Chris Ray is a
very capable pitcher with a ton of potential. Between him and Hawkins, the save
chances should be well covered. Palmeiro and Sosa
didn’t add much to the lineup. They are already an afterthought in Oriole
country.
--
Key Additions:
2B
Mark Loretta, 3B Mike Lowell, SS Alex Gonzalez, OF
The
offensive impact is minimal, mainly due to the fact that David Ortiz and Manny
Ramirez remain in the Beantown lineup. Loretta
resembles the outgoing Tony Graffanino with the bat,
and will fill the second slot in the order.
Key Losses: 1B Kevin
Millar, 3B Bill Mueller, SS Edgar Renteria, OF Johnny
Damon
Obviously,
the main loss is Damon. He will be missed at the top of the order, but Crisp
will be a suitable replacement. Otherwise, this is a case of addition by
subtraction. The Sox are much better defensively this year with Crisp and
Gonzalez in the middle of the field. Red Sox hurlers will notice the
difference, which should neutralize any team chemistry issues created by losing
the “idiot trio” of Millar, Damon and Mueller.
--
Key Additions:
1B/DH
Jim Thome, P Javier Vazquez
Thome is primed for
a huge comeback year. His injuries and poor start to 2005 will drop his draft
value. Pounce on him as a value pick. Moving close to home and back to the
Key Losses: OF Aaron Rowand, OF/DH Carl Everett, P Orlando Hernandez
Thome will make
everyone forget Carl Everett, if they haven’t already. Thome’s
effect on the lineup will also offset the trade of Rowand,
who will be capably replaced by rookie Brian Anderson. Finally, the addition of
Vazquez is an upgrade over Hernandez, although El Duque’s
offseason heroics will be hard to duplicate. In all,
this is a better team than last year’s championship squad.
--
Key Additions:
OF
Jason Michaels, P Paul Byrd, P Jason Johnson
Michaels
was not a standout performer in
Key Losses: OF
Crisp
certainly leaves a void on the Indians’ roster, but the core of the offense is
still intact and will carry the Tribe despite an outfield transition. The
rotation will not seem as strong without the defending
--
Key Additions:
P
Kenny Rogers, P Todd Jones
You’ll
notice little changes to the offense.
Key Losses: OF Rondell White, P Ugueth Urbina, P Jason Johnson
White
is a very solid hitter, but Curtis Granderson is
ready to prove his worth after a solid audition last year (.272/8/20 in 47
games). Should Ordonez be healthy enough to make his way into 130 games,
White’s loss will be rendered minimal. As for the pitching losses, call it the
O.J. effect. The clubhouse should be much calmer without a murderer around.
--
Key Additions:
1B
Doug Mientkiewicz, 2B Mark Grudzielanek,
OF Reggie Sanders, P Scott Elarton, P Mark Redman
The
offense had nowhere to go but up, and added some proven production at the top (Grudzielanek) and middle (Sanders) of the order. A full
season out of allegedly healthy DH Mike Sweeney will be the same as adding
another player, and will enhance the K.C. offense. The main improvement,
though, is in pitching and defense. Doug and Mark (hey, YOU try typing those
last names in the same sentence) are a substantial defensive improvement, and Elarton and Redman can do no worse than their predecessors,
the electrifying one-two tandem of Jose Lima and Brian Anderson.
Key Losses: None
We
refuse to acknowledge Jose Lima as a loss. The other notable “loss” is pitching
coach Guy Hansen, who is credited with tinkering too much with a good thing in
Zack Grienke. With Hansen gone, the K.C. brain trust
believes Grienke is set for a rebound of Bondermanesque proportions.
--
Key Additions:
P
Hector Carrasco, 3B Edgardo Alfonzo
Carrasco
is penciled in right now as the fifth starter in
Key Losses: C Bengie Molina, P Jarrod Washburn, P Paul Byrd
Molina’s
departure opens the door for highly touted prospect Jeff Mathis, who should
assume the starting job and the No. 9 slot in the lineup. Despite the loss of
Byrd and Washburn, the Angels have plenty of capable arms to toe the rubber. In
addition to Carrasco,
--
Key Additions:
2B
Luis Castillo, 3B Tony Batista, OF Rondell White
Castillo
gives the Twins a prototype leadoff hitter, and steadies a notoriously weak
position for the Twinkies. Batista and White offer some punch at the bottom of
the lineup, with the potential to step into key production roles if Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer happen to
falter.
Key Losses: OF Jacque
Jones, P Joe Mays
The
--
Key Additions:
OF
Johnny Damon, P Kyle Farnsworth, P Octavio
Dotel
No
longer resembling a caveman, Damon arrives in
Key Losses: 1B Tino
Jason
Giambi’s sudden rebirth made losing
--
Key Additions:
1B/DH
Frank Thomas, OF Milton Bradley, P Esteban Loaiza
Thomas
and Bradley bring lengthy health histories to
Key Losses: OF Eric Byrnes
Byrnes
would have just muddled
--
Key Additions:
C
Kenji Jojihma, OF/DH Carl Everett, P Jarrod Washburn
Jojihma put up
outstanding numbers in his native
Key Losses: P Ryan
Franklin
--
Key Additions:
3B
Sean Burroughs
Burroughs
was due for a change of scenery. He’ll play every day and hit at the bottom of
the lineup. Consider taking a late flyer in deep leagues due to his new
surroundings.
Key Losses: P Danys Baez, P Lance Carter
The
Rays traded away Baez and Carter to add young pitching depth to its farm
system. The effect on the current roster is that Chad Orvella
will likely enter camp as the leader to close for
--
Key Additions:
OF
Brad Wilkerson, P Kevin Millwood, P Adam Eaton
Wilkerson
is a prime breakout candidate in the dangerous Ranger lineup. He will hit
leadoff and should score plenty of runs. Millwood and Eaton both face a stiff
test by moving to a noted hitter’s haven. But both are very solid pitchers and
will fare better than the stiffs that recently occupied spots in the
Key Losses: 2B/OF Alfonso Soriano, P Chris Young
You
simply can’t replace Soriano’s production (36 HR, 104
RBI, 30 SB), especially at a weak position like second base. The Rangers,
though, are sold on Ian Kinsler as their second
baseman of the future. Kinsler has plenty of promise,
and will be placed near the bottom of the lineup to avoid too much pressure.
Young showed a lot of potential last season, but is
off to greener pastures in the pitcher’s paradise that is
--
Key Additions:
1B
The
heart of the
Key Losses: 2B
The
O-Dawg leaves a void in the Jays’ defensive makeup.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
--
Key Additions: SS Edgar Renteria, C Todd Pratt, RP Lance Cormier, RP Oscar
Villarreal
Since
Renteria’s stats are about the same as Furcal’s across the board — with exception to steals — the
change at short shouldn’t hurt the top of the Braves’ batting order too much.
Just don’t expect him to be in scoring position as often as the speedy Furcal. Also, as Renteria himself
noted back in December, he tends to start slow, so don’t expect him to heat up
until the weather does the same. In this regard, the move south should help
him. Todd Pratt will back up Brian McCann behind the plate. If 21-year-old
McCann has trouble with his new everyday gig, Pratt could step up and provide a
little pop for a fantasy owner in a deep NL league. Although both Cormier and
Villarreal had ERAs above 5.00 last year, one or both
could get at shot at closing if Chris Reitsma falls
on his face.
Key Losses: SS Rafael Furcal, C Johnny Estrada, RP Kyle Farnsworth, RP Danny
Kolb, 1B Julio Franco, 3B Andy Marte, SP Mike Hampton
The
fact that opposing pitchers no longer have to worry about Furcal
stealing second and third if they decide to blink could make it a little
tougher for the heart of the Braves’ order. Estrada’s line of .261/4/39 — which
McCann (.278/5/23) almost topped in less than half the at bats — made it easy
to ship him off for the aforementioned Cormier and Villarreal. The loss of free
agents Kolb and Farnsworth makes Reitsma the best
closer they have, even though he blew nine saves in 24 chances last year. Julio
Franco’s departure leaves Adam LaRoche as the
full-time first baseman until the Braves can find someone that can hit against
lefties for him. Marte won’t be missed unless Chipper
Jones goes down again. Mike Hampton is still a member of the team, but thanks
to the Tommy John surgery he had last September, he will miss the entire 2006
season.
--
Key Additions: 1B Mike
Jacobs, SP Sergio Mitre, SS Hanley Ramirez, 2B Pokey
Reese, RP Joe Borowski, RP Travis Bowyer
Replacing
Delgado at first, Mike Jacobs could prove to be more than serviceable after his
line of .310/11/23 in just 100 at bats last season. Of all the young pitching
prospects that the Marlins brought in this offseason,
Sergio Mitre looks to be the one most likely to land
in the starting rotation. With an ERA of 6.12 in 18 starts over the last three
seasons with the Cubbies, Mitre is the third most
experienced starter in the Marlins’ rotation, behind Willis and Moehler. Scary. Penciled in as the
starter at short, 22-year-old Hanley Ramirez has speed and a little power, but
just two at bats in the big leagues. Pokey Reese will start at second and most
likely be the offense’s black hole of production. Borowski
and prospect Travis Bowyer will battle it out for the closer job. Chances are
both will get a shot at the gig before the end of the season.
Key losses: SP Josh
Beckett, SP A.J. Burnett, 2B Luis Castillo, 1B Carlos Delgado, OF Juan Encarnacion, RP Todd Jones, C Mike Lo Duca,
3B Mike Lowell, OF Juan Pierre, SS Alex Gonzalez
Remember
every single good player the Marlins had last year? Yeah, well, they’re all
gone (except Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera).
What remains is a group of talented prospects and cheap veterans, many of which
have wait-and-see fantasy value. This is most true in the starting rotation,
where Willis is the only starter sure to have a spot regardless of what happens
this spring. Chris Aguila, Eric Reed, and Jeremy Hermida will make up the new outfield. Reed’s speed and Hermida’s all around talent should make them viable fantasy
prospects. Behind the plate, Josh Willingham looks to be something of a
sleeper, since he hit .337 with 19 homers and 54 RBI in 93 at bats at Triple-A
last season. Not bad at all for a catcher.
--
Key Additions:
1B
Carlos Delgado, C Paul Lo Duca, OF Xavier Nady, RP Billy Wagner
The
change of scenery probably won’t do much to help or hurt Delgado’s numbers. Lo Duca is set to hit second in the Mets’ lineup, cutting down
his RBI chances, but increasing his opportunities to score runs thanks to the
bats of Beltran and Delgado behind him. With Mike Cameron out, Xavier Nady will probably platoon with Victor Diaz in right field,
making both nothing more than options in NL-only leagues. Taking over as
closer, Billy Wagner should be amazing as always — maybe even more so now that
he is finally in a pitcher friendly park. The only pitfall for Wagner could be
the intensity of
Key losses: SP Kris
Benson, OF Mike Cameron, RP Danny Graves, RP Roberto Hernandez, RP Braden Looper, C Mike Piazza
The
“meh”-inducing stats of Kris Benson won’t be missed
by the Mets and their plethora of starters. Taking his place in the rotation
will be Aaron Heilman, who becomes a solid option in
fantasy leagues. In 108 innings pitched last season, Heilman
notched a 3.17 ERA and 106 strikeouts. Obviously Wagner is an improvement over
--
Key Additions:
SP
Ryan Franklin, RP Tom Gordon, 3B Abraham Nunez, RP Arthur Rhodes, OF Aaron Rowand
Ryan
Franklin will join the starting rotation and undoubtedly continue his mediocre
ways. Gordon will replace Billy Wagner as the team’s closer. At 38 years old,
Gordon can’t have too many years left, but he should get the job done this
season.
Key losses: OF Kenny
Lofton, OF Jason Michaels, SP Vicente Padilla, 1B Jim Thome,
RP Billy Wagner
The
loss of center field duo Lofton and Michaels becomes a moot point with Rowand on the squad. A similar argument can be made
regarding the loss of Jim Thome, since Ryan Howard
should only improve with an increase in at bats and a steady job at first.
--
Key Additions:
SP
Brian Lawrence, 2B Alfonso Soriano
Don’t
be fooled by the short list. The Nats actually made
quite a few additions to their club this offseason,
but these there the only two of any fantasy importance. Brian Lawrence, a
groundball pitcher, should make fast friends with the great Nats
defense and their enormous park. For Alfonso Soriano,
the ballpark, position change (from 2B to OF) and league change could all
affect his play, but in the end, he’s still Alfonso Soriano.
Key losses: 3B Vinny Castilla, SP Esteban Loaiza, OF Brad Wilkerson, OF Preston Wilson
Trading
Castilla for
--
Key Additions:
RP
Scott Eyre, RP Bob Howry, OF Jacque Jones, SP Wade
Miller, OF Juan Pierre
Eyre
and Howry will serve as the left- and right-handed
setup men, respectively, for closer Ryan Dempster.
Jacque Jones takes over in right field, and will probably hit fifth behind
Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, which will only help
his numbers. Wade Miller will be out until May at the earliest after undergoing
shoulder surgery last September. Fantasy owners should stay away from him until
it is clear that his shoulder is healthy. Juan Pierre finally gives the Cubbies
a quality leadoff man, who will obviously provide the heart of the order with
more RBI chances.
Key losses: OF Jeromy Burnitz, SS Nomar Garciaparra, OF Corey
Patterson
Replaced
by Jones and Pierre in the outfield, Burnitz and
Patterson won’t be missed at all. Garciaparra’s
never-ending injury woes become someone else’s problem, while the Cubs are left
to develop young Ronny Cedeno to be his replacement. Cedeno hit .355 with eight homers and 11 RBI in Triple-A
last year, showing he can do a bit of everything. Fantasy owners in NL leagues
should remember him on draft day.
--
Key Additions:
SP
Dave Williams, 2B Tony Womack
Dave
Williams joins the Reds’ rotation after showing potential at times with the
Pirates last season. With an actual offense behind him, Williams should have a
good chance at improving on his 10 wins last year. However, the Reds’ bandbox
park will surely have a negative effect on his ERA. Tony Womack will challenge
Ryan Freel and Rich Aurilia
for the starting job at second base in spring training. If he wins it outright,
the little bit of speed left in his old legs might be worth something in a
fantasy league.
Key losses: 1B Sean Casey
Trading
Sean Casey opened up first base for Adam Dunn, allowing him to move out of Cincy’s overcrowded outfield. As the new full-time first
baseman, Dunn’s batting average probably won’t improve, but he will have a shot
at the 50 home run mark.
--
Key Additions:
OF
Preston
Wilson gives the Astros some much needed power, and
because of this, he should find his way in the starting lineup on an everyday
basis. If Bagwell cannot prove to the Astros that his
shoulder will allow him to play at 100%, then Lance Berkman
will take over at first base, while Wilson, Taveras,
and
Key losses: SP Roger
Clemens
The
loss of Clemens provides Ezequiel Astacio
the chance to take up full-time residence in the starting roation.
Good news for Astacio, bad for Astros
fans, and meaningless for fantasy owners.
--
Key Additions:
3B
Corey Koskie
The
addition of Corey Koskie to the mix will prevent Bill
Hall from starting at third base. Instead, Hall will get his work in at just
about every infield position, and should still end up with about 400 at bats.
Of course, Koskie himself has only been able to stay
healthy enough for one 500-at-bat season in his career, so Hall could still be
worth a flier on draft day anyway.
Key losses: 1B
Once
Prince Fielder was deemed ready to shine, Overbay
became expendable. For the Brewers’ sake, Fielder better follow
through and become this year’s Ryan Howard, as expected.
--
Key Additions:
OF
Jeromy Burnitz, 1B Sean
Casey, RP Roberto Hernandez, 3B Joe Randa,
Jeromy Burnitz will start in right, hit about 30 home runs, strike
out about four thousand times and hit for a mediocre average. Draft
accordingly. Sean Casey will hit cleanup behind
Key losses: RP Jose
Jose
Mesa’s productive years are over, whether he’s pitching at Coors or not. Mackowiak and Ward won’t be missed, even if Randa and Casey do have sub-par seasons.
--
Key Additions:
OF
Larry Bigbie, OF Juan Encarnacion,
RP Braden Looper, 2B Junior
Spivey
The
unimpressive Larry Bigbie will have to fight off
Taguchi and Rodriguez in spring training for the starting job in left field,
while Encarnacion should have right field to himself.
Encarnacion could hit either second or sixth,
depending on how the spring air down south strikes Tony La Russa.
Looper might see some action as a setup man, but more
importantly, could get another shot at closing if Isringhausen
doesn’t toughen up. Spivey will have it out with Aaron Miles for second base.
The winner there would hit second in the order if Encarnacion
ends up behind Rolen.
Key losses: 2B Mark Grudzielanek, SP Matt Morris, OF Reggie Sanders, OF Larry
Walker
Grudzielanek, Sanders, and
Walker all make way for the younger, incoming talent listed above. The loss of
Matt Morris opens up a spot for Anthony Reyes, one of the top prospects in the
organization, at the tail end of the rotation. With little pressure in that
fifth spot, Reyes could prove to be a nice little sleeper for fantasy owners.
--
Key Additions:
SP/RP
Miguel Batista, OF Eric Byrnes, C Johnny Estrada, SP Orlando Hernandez, 2B
After
notching 31 saves with the Blue Jays last season, Miguel Batista will likely
make the transition back to a starting role for
Key losses: SS Royce
Clayton, 3B Troy Glaus, SP Shawn Estes, SP Javier
Vazquez
No
more Royce Clayton means the D-Backs can push Counsell
over to shortstop to make room for
--
Key Additions:
RP
Jose
Jose
Mesa will setup for Brian Fuentes. Even if Fuentes somehow loses the job to
Key losses: None
Not
much here for opposing GMs to drool over. Even Helton is damaged goods at this
point.
--
Key Additions:
RP
Danys Baez, SS Rafael Furcal,
1B/SS Nomar Garciaparra, OF
Kenny Lofton, 3B Bill Mueller, SP Jae Seo, SP Brett Tomko
If
Eric Gagne can make it back from last June’s elbow surgery in time for the
start of the season, Danys Baez will be his setup
man. If Gagne can’t make it back, Baez will replace him as closer until he
does. Furcal will give the Dodgers some much-needed
speed, even after his knee surgery in January. He should be ready to go by
spring. The other incoming shortstop, Nomar Garciaparra, will set up shop at first base. As everyone
says every year, Garciaparra could be a fantasy stud
if he somehow found a way to play inside a plastic bubble. Kenny Lofton will
become a full-time player again, after hitting .335 with 22 stolen bases as a
part-timer with the Phillies last year. Despite his
age, he can still produce, and should be a cheap option for those looking for
extra speed. Bill Mueller will start at third, but beyond that, won’t do much
of anything else. Seo and Tomko
are slated to make up the tail end of the starting rotation. Seo’s 8-2 record and 2.59 last year were far more
impressive than his actual talent. He really could go either way, but Dodger
Stadium will help. Tomko has a 2.93 ERA at Dodger
Stadium over his career, so the move should be kind to him as well.
Key losses: OF Milton
Bradley, SP Jeff Weaver
With
all the great additions that the Dodgers made, the club probably doesn’t even
know Bradley and Weaver are gone.
--
Key Additions:
OF
Mike Cameron, 3B Vinny Castilla,
SP Shawn Estes, C Mike Piazza
Mike
Cameron will play center and should have another one of his 20/20 seasons. The
move from RFK to Petco Park — which, despite being a
pitcher’s park, still lends itself to right handed power — should help Vinny Castilla, and could even
bring him back to fantasy relevance.
Key losses: SP Adam Eaton,
C Ramon Hernandez, SP Brian Lawrence, 2B Mark Loretta, OF Xavier Nady, 3B Joe Randa
Eaton
and Lawrence moving on will give Estes and Chan Ho Park spots in the rotation.
Estes might prove worthy of the opportunity, but Park needs to remember how to
pitch if he wants to hold onto his spot. Piazza should still be a step up from
Ramon Hernandez offensively. Mark Loretta’s departure will give rookie Josh
Barfield a shot at winning the second base job in spring training. Barfield can
do a little bit of everything, making him worthy of a
look in NL leagues should he win the starting spot. Vinny
Castilla replaces Joe Randa
in a pretty even old man-for-old man swap.
--
Key Additions:
OF
Steve Finley, SP Matt Morris
At
the moment, Steve Finley looks to be the Giants’ fourth outfielder, but when
two of the three guys ahead of him are the brittle Barry Bonds and Moises Alou, there’s a good
chance he’ll be starting by May. Matt Morris hasn’t lived up to his usual level
of excellence over the last two years, but the change of scenery could make all
the difference for him. PacBell is actually something of a pitcher’s park, which
could help him get back to his career averages.
Key losses: RP LaTroy Hawkins, SP Brett Tomko
Trading
away Hawkins got rid of the Giants’ most viable backup closer. If Benitez
falters this season, there might be rock-paper-scissors matches over who gets
the save opportunities. Out goes Tomko, in comes Matt
Morris. The Giants have to like the sound of that.
.
Notable Off-Season Moves
When
your neighbor moves away, it’s something to note. However, if the neighbor with
the 52-inch plasma and gigantic grill decides to look for greener pastures,
it’s big news. It’s the same in baseball. Casey to
Alfonso Soriano, to
One
look at his home/road splits from last season is all it takes to realize Soriano’s move away from
The
true effect of this acquisition for the Astros has a
lot to do with whether or not Jeff Bagwell can still play or not. If Bagwell is
able to stick it to the Astros by playing and keeping
them from collecting on his insurance policy, that would mean
Sean Casey, to
Garciaparra, to
Thankfully,
Nomar Garciaparra smartened
up and withdrew from the World Baseball Classic. That was a close one. What
were the Dodgers thinking by even letting him entertain the possibility of
participating in that preseason, career-ending injury waiting to happen? With
that nonsense out of the way, Garciaparra can now
focus on replacing the duo of Hee-Seop Choi and Olmedo Saenz at first
base for the Dodgers. Obviously the move from shortstop to the low-impact first
base position will help keep Garciapparra healthy
(maybe). Having good OBP guys like Furcal and Lofton
hitting ahead of him will help him statistically, so fantasy owners really
shouldn’t be too afraid of drafting Garciaparra.
After all, he is still a .320 career hitter. His days of double digit stolen
bases are probably behind him, though. There have been rumors that Garciaparra might even see a little time in the outfield
this season, in order to give Choi a chance at the
plate every now and then. If such a thing does happen, God help him. There’s a
wall out there.
Jeremie Ballinger is a PFS American League Correspondent and
Brooks Peck is
a PFS National League Correspondent.
For more player and injury updates visit www.profantasysports.com