2005-06 NBA Fantasy Busts

Busts come in many forms. From veterans passing the end of their prime to over-hyped “studs” pumped up for no good reason. They can act as fantasy anchors that destroy your season from the start. To eliminate—or at least minimize--the potential damage on Draft Day fsru.com has compiled the 10 biggest basketball busts of the 2005-06 campaign. They range from the old (Antoine Walker) to the young (Sebastian Telfair) and represent both conferences. Poor performances know no boundaries, so be aware when sitting down in your War Room.

1. Antoine Walker, F, Miami

For the record, there are few bigger fans of Employee No. 8 than me. It’s hard not to root for Walker, especially from a fantasy perspective, because he’s capable of doing everything. Now pushing the big 3-0, however, the off season trade to Miami makes Walker a small fish in a big pond. Now dwarfed by Shaquille O’Neal and Dwayne Wade, Walker will take on a supporting role, much as he did with Dallas two seasons ago. His point production that year dropped to a career-low 14.1 per game on a team that was one of the highest scoring in the league.

The Heat will hammer teams with defense and continue playing possession by possession even with the addition of high-octane point guard Jason Williams. So Walker, now in the running for Sixth Man of the Year, will see his numbers plummet in a number of categories: points, threes and assists. Coupled with an already horrific free-throw percentage and low block total, Employee No. 8 in no longer a fantasy stud. Let someone else pay the high price for the name recognition.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Atl/Bos 19.1 9.0 3.4 42.2 53.9 110 89 58

2. Quentin Richardson, F, N.Y. Knicks

Richardson’s Q rating skyrockets in the Big Apple, but his overall production is in for a tumble. Like Walker, Richardson’s moving to a defensive-oriented team that treats three-pointers like the plague. Aside from Chauncey Billups, did Detroit really have another consistent long-range bomber? Not exactly. Larry Brown surrounded Billups with several complementary threats (Rasheed Wallace, Tayshaun Prince, Lindsey Hunter), not another big gunner.

Coming into the NBA out of DePaul, Richardson was a combo guard that could rebound with the best in any backcourt, and he’ll reutrn to those roots with the Knicks at small forward. Nate Robinson’s running the point, Stephon Marbury moves to the two-guard and Jamal Crawford comes off the bench along with Allan Houston. There’s simply no room for Q to hoist away. Drafting him with the expectation of a boatload of threes is like buying a Chevette and expecting it to drive like a Hummer. Tied atop the charts in three-pointers, Q won’t even sniff the top 20 this year.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Phoenix 14.9 6.1 2.0 38.9 73.9 226 96 27

3. Kwame Brown, F, L.A. Lakers

If Brown couldn’t stay focused on the hard court in DC, how will he improve moving out to Hollywood? Distractions abound in a town where Jack Nicholson rules, and the Hollywood lifestyle isn’t surrounded by quotes. Everyone loves it, but few actually live it. The good news is he’ll learn from one of the best coaches of all time in Phil Jackson. The downside is the fact Jackson has an even bigger distraction in Kobe Bryant to worry about, and Brown will be learning one of the NBA’s most complex offenses. Expect him to get swallowed up by the new scheme, which should really be called the Bermuda Triangle because so many players have gotten lost in it.

His best opportunity for Shine Time was with the Wizards, a team full of young, impressionable players with a chance to make substantial contributions. All he has to look forward to now is getting frozen out on set plays thanks to the presence of Kobe, Lamar Odom, Luke Walton (a Jackson favorite) and possibly even point guard Sasha Vujacic. Forget all the hype about a change of scenery helping Brown. How does a 6-11 power forward explain blocking just 15 shots in 42 games? He should swat more than that just standing around with his arms in the air.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Washington 7.0 4.9 0.9 46.0 57.4 0 25 15

4. Drew Gooden, F, Cleveland

The name of the game in real estate is location, location, location. The same is true in professional sports, where a player’s surrounding team can determine his level of production. Having the selfless LeBron James as the focal point of the Cavs offense helped Gooden establish career-highs in every major category and nearly average a double-double last year. Fast forward to the 2005-06 campaign, however, and James has a bunch of new toys to test drive. The immediate threat to Brown is Donyell Marshall, a veteran low post player that’s also capable of stretching defenses with the three-ball. He tied an NBA record with 12 from downtown in a single game last season.

It’s unfortunate, because Gooden was just beginning to develop into a potent frontcourt weapon. His growth at 23 will be stunted by Marshall’s presence and the addition of Larry Hughes, another potential 20-point scorer. There aren’t enough balls (or minutes) to go around in Cleveland and that leaves Gooden on the outside looking in.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Cleveland 14.4 9.2 1.6 49.2 81.0 5 77 76

5. Wally Szczerbiak, G, Minnesota

With all due respect to the sweet-shooting Szczerbiak, the game of basketball also requires defense to be played. You can’t just stand on the wing and fire away. The drafting of Rashad McCants significantly impacts Szczerbiak, who had to be happy when Latrell Sprewell left. In addition to McCants, there’s also Trenton Hassell, otherwise known as Bruce Bowen in a Timberwolves uniform. The early reports on incoming head coach Dwayne Casey are that the tends to focus on defensive side of the floor. That won’t benefit Szczerbiak.

To Szczerbiak’s credit, Minnesota needs some scoring options alongside Kevin Garnett, and he easily stands out as option No. 2. But you have to wonder how he will make the transition from bench player to full-time starter that also brings with it an opponent’s first-team defense.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Minnesota 15.5 3.7 2.4 50.6 85.5 63 40 16

6. Speedy Claxton, G, New Orleans

Claxton just can’t seem to catch a break when it comes to a starting job. A backup for the first three years of his career, the time finally seemed to arrive for Claxton to see a major role when he moved to New Orleans in the Baron Davis trade. The audition didn’t last long and then the Hornets drafted hot shot Chris Paul with the No. 3 pick in June’s draft. Claxton’s not a threat to fill up the nets on a nightly basis, but he is a defensive demon (1.7 steals in the last two seasons) and a solid source of assists. He also contributes in free-throw percentage because of his slashing ability in the lane.

Now that Paul’s in the fold and has a full set of access to the Hornets offense, Claxton returns to his role as a bit player in the grand scheme of things. A pure point guard in every sense of the word, Claxton can’t slide over to shooting guard since that spot’s occupied by Arvydas Macijauskas, J.R. Smith and Kirk Snyder. Throw in an inability to remain healthy for long stretches—he’s missed at least 20 games in all four of his seasons—and Claxton’s back in the same old boat.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

GS/NO 11.0 3.0 6.0 42.1 73.6 11 109 8

7. Jameer Nelson, G, Orlando

Thought to be too undersized for the NBA, Nelson slid down the draft board in 2004, landing in Orlando midway through the first round. It seemed like a terrible situation, being that Steve Francis sat above him on the depth chart, but all that has changed in just one year. Stevie Franchise is moving to shooting guard, allowing Nelson to run the show. Will it work? Tough to say, because you can take the player away from point guard, but not the point guard out of the player. Will Francis still dominate the ball? Likely. And don’t forget, Grant Hill is still healthy and coming off a solid return to the floor.

When Nelson is on the floor, it’s expected that most opposing point guards will post him up in the paint because he’s almost as close to Earl Boykin’s height as Jason Kidd’s. Keyon Dooling, a major disappoint in previous stops with the Clippers and Heat is in the mix for playing time, too. It’s tough to forecast a major breakout for Nelson, considering Francis is lurking alongside him at the two. Hill will also clamor for duties running the show from point forward.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Orlando 8.7 2.4 3.0 45.5 68.2 44 78 3

8. Chris Webber, F, Philadelphia

Let’s see, Allen Iverson likes to shoot and be the focal point of the offense. Webber also likes to be kept in the flow of the offense by getting close to 15-20 shots a game. The 76ers learned the hard way what happens when you have two players bent on grabbing the spotlight. Webber never got into a groove, shooting less than 40 percent from the floor with Philly and isn’t getting any healthier or younger.

Sure he started out like gangbusters last season with the Kings and his overall numbers were respectable. But having a jump-shooting power forward that cans just 43.3 percent of his shots and a bum leg isn’t a recipe for success. Iverson is and always will be the kingpin, and Kyle Korver adds a perimeter game Philadelphia has lacked. Webber is an old 32 with a ton of mileage on the odometer. Trade him in for a younger, sleeker option.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Sac/Phi 19.5 9.1 4.7 43.3 79.4 15 94 53

9. Sebastian Telfair, G, Portland

Plenty of flash and a growing amount of substance define Telfair’s game, which is starting to take shape at the NBA level. Handed the starting job late in his rookie season, Telfair proved he was up to the task, dishing out 6.1 assists in his final 11 games, but his lack of participation on the boards (more than three just three times in the last 17 games) is a concern.

The Trailblazers also added Jarrett Jack through the draft, and new coach Nate McMillam is all too familiar with the backcourt by committee. None of his Seattle teams had one standout at the position, but two solid players splitting floor time.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Portland 6.8 1.5 3.3 39.3 78.9 17 35 4

10. Michael Finley, F, San Antonio

When Finley was in his heyday with Dallas, he was an effective third wheel on a high-scoring outfit. Much like Miami’s Walker, however, Finley now joins a team that plays defense first, defense second and defense third. Points come only out of the natural flow of the game, not an up-tempo style of play. Thus, Finley’s not only on the downside of his career but also in a system entirely different from any he’s played before. Also consider Finley the No. 4 option at best behind Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker and the fact that San Antonio never cracks 100 points by design.

2004-05 Stats PPG RPG APG FG% FT% 3s STLs BLKs

Dallas 15.7 4.1 2.6 42.7 82.1 116 48 18

Steve Siniski is a freelance writer based in New York and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association.