Drafted Round 1, #2 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: The second coming of Marshall Faulk? Priest Holmes? Deion Sanders? Who? Bush is a dynamic talent, and the Saints are going to take advantage of them all once he sets foot on the field. He can score out of the backfield, split wide, on punt returns or kick returns. Passed over by the Houston Texans, Bush still has a direct path to stardom, even on a Saints team with Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn established fantasy stars. Like a swiss army knife, Bush can cut a defense so many ways, New Orleans has to keep him on the field.
Fool’s Gold: Prior to the start of training camp, talk of Bush in a Saints uniform was exactly that—talk. Still not signed to a contract, some reports even had Bush on the ready to sit out all of his rookie season. This would definitely cut a lot deeper for fantasy owners than Bush’s initial debate with the NFL on whether or not he could wear #5 on the field. Sitting out would make him just as valuable in 2006 as Dalton Hilliard.
Bottom Line: Bush will be in a New Orleans uniform at some point this year. Depending on how long a potential holdout lasts, he could fall far short of the initial expectations.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiiii
Drafted Round 1, #3 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: A rare talent. A few years ago, Michael Vick was all the rage as the new breed of NFL quarterback. Somehow, Young is a bigger, possibly faster version with just as string an arm. It says a lot that Tennessee offensive coordinator didn’t stomp his feet to draft his former signal-caller, Matt Leinart. But knowing the creativity of Chow, the selection of Young is something he can undoubtedly work with. It helps that Titans head coach Jeff Fisher was around to witness the growth and development of Steve McNair.
Fool’s Gold: Rookie quarterbacks are nearly always busts. The jump from college to the NFL is like getting to the top of Jack’s beanstalk in one leap. That just doesn’t happen. Billy Volek has already been anointed the starter, and the worst thing for Young would be injury or ineffectiveness by Volek. The rookie is best served by holding the clipboard and learning for a full season. It worked with Carson Palmer and it can work with Young, too.
Bottom Line: Young may see some work in goalline packages where the Titans can use his rushing ability and possibly some mop-up work. Beyond that, don’t expect much in terms of fantasy production.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 1, #6 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Davis is the unquestioned starting tight end
for San Francisco. Quarterback Alex Smith lacked a go-to receiver and, to be
honest, a safety valve on third downs. Davis is both rolled into one player.
The Niners will design game plans around getting him the ball. Establishing
Davis helps the running game and also opens up the outsides for Antonio Bryant.
Fool’s Gold: There’s nothing foolish about grabbing Davis
in the middle rounds.
Bottom Line: Davis will rank among the best fantasy tight
ends as a rookie, and that’s saying a lot given the depth at the position. A
60-catch campaign with 800 yards and a touchdown total hovering between 7-10 is
not a joke.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): iiiii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiiii
Drafted Round 1, #10 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: While Young went to the perfect situation, Leinart was drafted into the perfect system. Who needs arm strength when you’re throwing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin? Add Edgerrin James into the mix, and Leinart will eventually live every quarterback’s dream.
Fool’s Gold: Barring an injury to Kurt Warner, Leinart will only wear an Arizona hat, not a helmet as a rookie. The expectations are quite high, yes, even playoffs are being spoken of.
Bottom Line: As a late-round pick, Leinart’s worth a roster spot for the future. It’s conceivable his first year stats could consist of zeros.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 1, #11 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Few quarterbacks hit the NFL with as much collegiate experience as Cutler. A four-year starter at Vanderbilt, Cutler brings all the necessary tools, but his most important attribute may be mental toughness. Losing was all but a way of life for the Commodores, yet Cutler single-handedly changed that during his tenure. In his senior season, he helped Vanderbilt sniff the big time, nearly leading them to a bowl berth. The Broncos are as talented as any offense in the league, and Jake Plummer’s as good a bet as any quarterback to lose his job because of ineffectiveness.
Fool’s Gold: As previously stated, rookie quarterbacks are generally seen, not heard.
Bottom Line: Likely to see more field time than any other rookie quarterback, but that’s not saying much. He doesn’t have the hype of Young or Leinart, but he could be more successful in the long run.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiii
Drafted Round 1, #21 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Inconsistency may be the name of the game for rookies lining up under center, but rookie running backs are always worth their weight on Draft Day. Success is easier to forecast in the backfield than any other position, because they simply touch the ball more than any other player…except, of course, quarterbacks. But they’re not trying to learn all the nuances of an offense. Rookie runners can be less cerebral and more reactive on the field. Maroney was drafted to be the heir apparent to Corey Dillon. But that doesn’t mean he’ll get more pine time than shine time. Bill Belichick will use Maroney, likely between the 20s, so he can save the Dillon from some of the pounding he usually absorbs.
Fool’s Gold: The knock on Maroney in college was work ethic, and that’s rarely a positive.
Bottom Line: If Belichick had any doubts about getting the most from Maroney, he wouldn’t have selected him in the first round. Few coaches get as much from their players as New England’s sideline boss, and one slip-up will have a room full of veterans riding Maroney’s tail. Talk about motivation, especially if Rodney Harrison is one of those veterans.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiii
Drafted Round 1, #25 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Holmes is battling for a starting job with the defending Super Bowl champs. Can’t go wrong there. And as the No. 2 receiver, Holmes will see plenty of single coverage until he proves himself. Holmes is a burner and someone Ben Roethlisberger can use to stretch the field, giving Willie Parker and Heath Miller room to move.
Fool’s Gold: Just below rookie quarterbacks on the bust radar stand wide receivers. Remember that bountiful first-round class in 2004? How great have Rashaun Woods, Reggie Williams, and Michael Jenkins turned out so far? Michael Clayton had a great rookie season but injuries cost him a solid follow-up. Oil prices don’t rise and fall as much as the value of a rookie receiver.
Bottom Line: Expect a strong start and midseason dropoff once defenses start to make adjustments. At best, Holmes finishes with 700 yards and four touchdowns.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 1, #27 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Williams started off with a bang, impressing the Carolina coaching staff during training camp. He’s also the backup to one of the NFL’s most recent injury-prone backs. DeShaun Foster has been a regular in the Panthers training room for major and minor injuries, boosting the likelihood of Williams seeing extensive action. Williams did everything at Memphis, working as a runner/receiver and doesn’t need a road map to get to the end zone.
Fool’s Gold: What’s to dislike? Not much. Williams was drafted by a veteran, run-oriented team with a brittle back in front of him.
Bottom Line: Draft Williams in the mid-rounds and pencil him in immediatly as a bye-week fill in. One ingrown toenail by Foster turns Williams into a stud.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): iiii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiiii
Drafted Round 1, #28 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: The Jacksonville offense is in transition after the retirement of Jimmy Smith. That said, Lewis could immediately step in and take on a lead role. Thrown in with a young receiving corps that has three players all drafted since 2004 (Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford and Matt Jones), Lewis will get a chance to catch balls from Byron Leftwich.
Fool’s Gold: The Jags will live and die by the running game and Lewis could be called on to do more blocking than receiving.
Bottom Line: As tight ends go, Lewis’ initial value is middle of the road at the position. He starts the year as little more than roster filler and is a borderline bye-week fill in.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Drafted Round 1, #30 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Addai can run, catch and perhaps most importantly, protect the hide of quarterback Peyton Manning. It his blocking ability that may have impressed the Indianapolis staff the most. His speed and cutting ability will keep the playbook similar to the one used with Edgerrin James, and don’t be surprised to see him pile up 50 catches, either.
Fool’s Gold: There is that small thing about a challenge for the starting gig by Dominic Rhodes. Don’t let that alter the thinking, however. Addai will be the clear cut No. 1 by the end of September at the absolute latest.
Bottom Line: A fantasy stud. He shouldn’t survive four rounds in fantasy drafts based on potential and the potency of the team that drafted him. We’re talking a 1,000-yard season without question.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): iiiii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiiii
Drafted Round 2, #36 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Because Tom Brady spreads the ball around, Jackson is slated to step in and get some solid run.
Fool’s Gold: It took a few years for Branch to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in New England, and it’s a longshot to think Jackson will accomplish the feat in his first year. Plus he also faces the stigma of being a receiver from Florida. Few Gators at the position—aside from Darrell Jackson—have lived up to their college glory. Jabar Gaffney, teammate Reche Caldwell and Ike Hilliard are the most recent examples of Florida busts.
Bottom Line: Jackson has to fend off several challengers for the No.2 job, including Caldwell. He’s probably looking at 30-35 grabs and 500 yards.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 2, #44 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Defenses can’t account for everyone in the Giants offense, and Eli Manning did a solid job spreading the ball around. Moss steps into a veteran offense that can help him learn the ropes quickly. Big plays were Moss’ specialty for the Hurricanes.
Fool’s Gold: Moss will be no better than sixth in the pecking order barring a major injury.
Bottom Line: Though Moss is capable of injecting life into the Giants’ offense, he won’t have many opportunities to do the same for any fantasy team. Let him sit on the waiver wire after Draft Day.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Drafted Round 2, #45 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Torn hamstring aside, White fell right into the laps of Tennessee. Reunited with his former coordinator at USC, Norm Chow, White steps directly into the role of goalline back. Chris Brown has displayed a knack for getting hurt more often than he scores and reports recently surfaced that the current starter now wants to be traded. The news instantly boosts the value of White. A bull to bring down at 6-2, 235 pounds, White has the build to terrorize opposing defenses.
Fool’s Gold: Injured leading up to the 2006 Draft, White’s stock dropped faster than Enron’s and he lasted all the way to #45 after being a lock to go in the first round. Then reports of an attitude problem surfaced. There are some question marks with White, but his talent should overcome them.
Bottom Line: Forget using White as a handcuff. He has significant value in touchdown-only leagues where he should fly off the board no later than the middle rounds. He’s one of the top fantasy backups to grab on Draft Day with excellent long-term value.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): iiii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iiii
Drafted Round 2, #46 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: As the Rams reshape their offense under new head coach Sean Linehan, all hands will be on deck. A good first impression can’t be underestimated.
Fool’s Gold: The Rams have four solid receiving options (Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald), plus Steven Jackson in the backfield. In essence, the rookie will take a backseat and carry plenty of luggage.
Bottom Line: It’s a stretch to consider Klopfenstein anything more than a second fantasy tight end. Once the offense gets sorted out, however, Linehan will come to like his new face over the middle.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars):ii
Drafted Round 2, #49 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Clemens was drafted as the Jets quarterback of the future. And the future could be just around the bend depending on the health of Chad Pennington and impression Patrick Ramsey makes.
Fool’s Gold: If Clemens were the backup, his prospects for playing time would obviously be much greater. Lepfrogging a pair of NFLers on the depth chart in just one training camp is as likely as the government legalizing Internet gambling.
Bottom Line: If you want to burn a late-round pick in a keeper league, Clemens is a solid long-range option.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): NONE
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 2, #52 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Jennings will be vying for time catching
passes from Brett Favre. Not a bad way to kick off a career, huh? Behind top
target Donald Driver, the Packers depth chart is thinner than Paris Hilton.
Robert Ferguson can never seem to stay out of the trainer’s room, and Rod
Gardner does more disappearing acts than David Copperfield. Jennings has an
instant avenue for a successful rookie year.
Fool’s Gold: At 5-11, 196 pounds, Jennings isn’t a
red-zone threat, and he isn’t going to run away from most defensive backs.
Bottom Line: If the pieces fall the right way, Jennings
could rack up an impressive season in the reception column. A solid 50 aren’t
out of the question when looking at his competition for playing time. He’s
definitely worth a late-round flier.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 2, #57 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Can play almost anywhere and score any time he touches the ball.
Fool’s Gold: Could be a wideout, cornerback or strictly a return man, meaning he may not even be eligible on Draft Day.
Bottom Line: Take a wait-and-see approach.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): NONE
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): i
Drafted Round 3, #72 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: The Cardinals are developing a pass-friendly offense and a tight end with soft hands is the perfect fit. Pope was Georgia’s best receiver and a playmaker once he pulled the ball in. At 6-8, he does make a great threat at the goalline.
Fool’s Gold: As the fourth and mostly fifth option in an offense that includes James, Boldin and Fitzgerald, it’ll take a minor miracle for Pope to see consistent action.
Bottom Line: At this point, he’s nothing more than waiver wire material on Draft Day.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Drafted Round 3, #74 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Playing for Mike Martz would even boost my fantasy value. Kevin Jones flopped more than the Simple Life last year, and because he’s a speed back by nature, Jones isn’t the most durable back around. Injury issues have been a source of concern. Calhoun exploded during his final year at Wisconsin and could post big numbers on the turf at Ford Field. Because the pressure’s on in Detroit, Jones will have a short leash, and that means Calhoun will be the first one called.
Fool’s Gold: The push is on to make Jones the featured back. And that could mean 300-plus carries in a perfect situation. Few totes would be left for Calhoun.
Bottom Line: Draft Calhoun in the later rounds as a handcuff to Jones, or stash him and hope Martz likes what he sees in camp.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): ii
Drafted Round 3, #90 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Stovall is big (6-5, 220) and would make a perfect complement to Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton. Jon Gruden will spread the field, and the Tampa offense is already backed by a powerful running game. As a young player on a young team, the only better gig would be a starting one.
Fool’s Gold: It’s going to take some time before Stovall works his way into consistent playing time. Not the fastest receiver around, his ceiling could be as Tampa Bay’s designated red-zone threat.
Bottom Line: In a best-case scenario, Stovall is a No. 3 receiver on the Bucs. He’d be a No. 5 option for most fantasy owners.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): i
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): iii
Drafted Round 4, #103 Overall
Fantasy Goldmine: Remember Kordell Stewart? Antwaan Randle El? That’s Smith. A converted quarterback who was a stud in college. Smith once ran for nearly 250 yards (246) and three touchdowns in a single game. That type of talent can’t be ignored by fantasy owners.
Fool’s Gold: Smith is a man without a position. Despite the Jets quarterback issues, he’s not listed on the depth chart. His value is severely limited until the coaching staff figures out where the rookie will line up.
Bottom Line: Unless your league is deep, Smith doesn’t hold much fantasy value.
2006 Fantasy Impact (Based on 5 Stars): NONE
Keeper League Forecast (Based on 5 Stars): i
Steve Siniski is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association.