2004 SLEEPERS AND BUSTS by Steve Siniski

Ride the bench in the NBA long enough and a starting job is bound to come your way. Expansion continues to dilute the talent on the hardwood, as the Charlotte Bobcats become the 30th franchise in the league, and players continue to reap the benefits. Jason Kapono, for instance, who often found little more than spot action for the Cleveland Cavaliers as an 11^th or 12^th man, has been thrust into the starting lineup for the Bobcats. As a result, his fantasy prospects shoot through the roof. The same is true of Gerald Wallace, an extra piece to Sacramento’s puzzle now on the verge of starting for expansion Charlotte.

Along with the additional team, fans and fantasy ballers alike have a ton of homework to do in preparation for the 2004-05 campaign. Players changed teams swiftly (and often), and the balance of power may have shifted slightly from the Western Conference. The addition of Shaquille O’Neal by the Miami Heat, along with Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley heading to Orlando puts Florida back on the map, while Atlanta traded Jason Terry for a potential stud—Antoine Walker. Now that Tracy McGrady’s teamed up with Yao Ming, look for the former Magic Man’s numbers to drop off—even if it’s just a tad—because Rockets head coach Jeff Van Gundy likes to work the post as a first, second and sometimes third option.

SLEEPERS

Jason Kapono, Charlotte Bobcats

A curious player to lead this column off with, it’s purely for shock value. Newcomers to the fantasy world may have never even heard of Kapono and for good reason. He was lucky to be the 12^th man on the Cavaliers and played in only 41 games. His overall rookie numbers imply the term “scrub” but he’s been given new life by the expansion Bobcats. A strong showing in the summer leagues puts a starting job well within Kapono’s reach, and he can be an excellent source of points, threes and percentages. A sharp-shooter during his days at UCLA, Kapono nailed 47.7 of his shots from downtown as a rookie (21 of 44) and is also a strong free-throw shooter. No. 1 pick Emeka Okafor is going to need some help on the perimeter, because the only other scoring threat appears to be Gerald Wallce and he’s more of a slasher.

Corey Maggette, L.A. Clippers

Looking for a potentially undervalued superstar? Then why not start the search in Hollywood, where stars are born? Maggette and the Clippers share the Staples Center with the Lakers, but now it’s time the small forward shares the bright lights with Kobe Bryant. The Clippers lost Quentin Richardson to Phoenix through free agency, leaving Maggette and Elton Brand to pick up the offensive slack. If one player is ready to take the torch and dunk it, Maggette’s it.

Maggette’s scoring has increased from 8.3 to 20.3 over the last five years, yet despite a taste for shooting long distance, Maggette still canned nearly 45 percent of his shots a year ago (44.7) and boosted fantasy teams with outstanding foul shooting (84.8 percent). Individual defense has been a major issue with the Clippers 24-year-old star in the making, but he still chipped in with nearly a steal per game (65 total in 73 games) to go along with 5.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists. Until the Clippers new young guns—Shaun Livingston, Chris Wilcox, Chris Kaman—are ready to fill up the nets, Maggette’s going to shoot, shoot, shoot for the home team.

Juwan Howard, Houston Rockets

It’s rarely a good thing to be the third wheel, but for Howard that’s exactly where he performs best. Hidden behind fantasy studs McGrady and Yao, the soft-shooting big man is an excellent choice as a third or fourth forward. He hits his shots (at least 45.3 percent in five straight years) posts solid rebounding numbers (at least seven per game in four straight years) and as an added bonus can hit from the charity stripe (80 percent in the last two seasons). He’ll still team with McGrady, but Ming gets to handle the dirty work, freeing Howard to work from the weak side and outside the blocks where his jumper can help alleviate the clogging in the paint. The fact that Van Gundy likes to revolve his offense around big men only helps Howard’s cause.

Antonio McDyess, Detroit Pistons

His knees are as reliable as rickety fence posts, but like Howard, McDyess’ situation may be perfect for success. Playing 20-to-25 minutes a game off the bench with Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace and Tayshaun Prince, means there is no pressure to perform. He can come in, rebound, play defense and maybe even take a few shots. The biggest upside will be on the boards, especially if he’s coming in for Ben Wallace—then he won’t have to fight Pac-Man to gobble up the rebounds.

Because Detroit’s defense forces so many clangs off the rim, the opportunity for boards will be high. Some will point to his recent injury history as cause for concern, and truthfully it is. But unless you’re building a fantasy team around him, it shouldn’t matter. Add in head coach Larry Brown’s preference for veterans over rookies--just ask Darko Milicic if you have any doubts—and playing time clearly won’t be an issue. Toss out a bid for a few bucks, or grab McDyess in the later rounds, and it’s little risk with plenty of reward.

Wesley Person, Miami Heat

If there’s one sport where role players have a fantasy impact, it’s basketball. The speed of the game lends itself to flurries of threes, rebounds, free throws, even steals and blocks sometimes. So it only makes sense to know where the one-dimensional players will fit in on the hardwood. Person, for instance, may only see the floor for 20 minutes a night, but what he does with those precious few ticks can be quite beneficial for fantasy owners. Defenses will have quite a bit to worry about in South Beach, and we’re not talking about the weather. Shaquille O’Neal’s relocation from the West Coast, coupled with the athletic abilities of Dwayne Wade and Eddie Jones, should make the perimeter a popular place for passes. When defenses try to double down on Shaq, or gravitate towards Wade or Jones, Person can make them pay with his marksmanship from the outside. The nephew of former NBAer Chuck Person, Wesley is nearly as accurate on jumpers. He’s canned at least 100 three-pointers in each of his last three full years (he played just 44 games during the 2000-01 campaign) and averaged almost one per game (55 in 58 games) in stints with Atlanta, Memphis and Portland a year ago.

Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando Magic

Turkoglu has managed to make his way east after stops in Sacramento and San Antonio where the window of opportunity never fully opened. He was among the first group of European players to come stateside but has yet to see his game fully bloom. Capable of filling up the stat sheet in any category, Turkoglu should prosper playing with Steve Francis and Grant Hill. Like Andrei Kirilenko, Turkoglu is a great source for steals (26 games with at least two) who can block shots (four games with at least two) and dial long-distance (30 games with at least two, including five with at least four).

Danny Fortson, Seattle SuperSonics

At times it makes sense to find a place on your team for someone like Fortson, and it’s usually at the end of the draft. As rosters are rounded out, and owners try to balance things out, players like Fortson become intriguing. Seattle lacks a true big man that likes to bang in the paint, so playing time should be available for Fortson. A rebounding machine throughout his career—he set a career high with 11.7 per game for Golden State in 2001-02—Fortson is clearly a one-category contributor. However, the damage he does in that one category can

Other Sleepers to consider…

Mehmet Okur, C, Utah Jazz

At an already thin position, his departure from iron-handed Larry Brown should benefit him all the way around.

Al Harrington, Atlanta Hawks

Move from well-rounded Indiana to no-name Hawks makes him an instant fantasy star…that is if he can pry the ball from Walker’s greedy mitts.

Adonal Foyle, C, Golden State

Looking to throw a block party? Don’t forget to invite Foyle.

Tyson Chandler, F, Chicago Bulls

Early reports indicate his back problems are a thing of the past and he’s in top shape. His rebounding totals could soar.

Manu Ginobli, G, San Antonio Spurs

Finally has a starting job to call his own (and the minutes to prove it). A great source of threes, steals, and quite possibly points as the No. 2 option behind Tim Duncan.

BUSTS

Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Portland

Abdur-Rahim is currently a player without a position. A power forward by trade, that position is already manned in Portland by Zach Randolph, who averaged 20 points and 10 boards in his first full year as a starter. Moving to center won’t help because not only is the spindly Abdur-Rahim undersized at 6-9, he doesn’t provide the defensive security Theo Ratliff does in the paint. Never good at cleaning up his teammates mistakes, Abdur-Rahim has just 76 blocks in the last two years. Ratliff, meanwhile, has swatted 569 over the same period. The veteran is stuck at small forward, where he can be abused by smaller, quicker players like Maggette and Shawn Marion in the Western Conference. It’s hard to tell how much his offense will be affected, but the thought of him sharing shots with a team that added Nick Van Exel to the mix and still has Qyntel Woods waiting in the wings is disheartening.

Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix Suns

The inclusion of Stoudemire on this list has to do with two factors—his play on the U.S. Olympic team, and the Suns’ addition of Quentin Richardson and Steve Nash during the offseason. Normally a player like Stoudemire would see consistent growth in production on the floor, and to date he has. His numbers soared across the board with his touch around the basket taking shape and helping his scoring climb from 13.5 points per game to 20.6. Despite missing 27 games because of injury, Stoudemire had two more total steals and blocks and the same number of assists. But bringing Nash and Q, a pair of offensive forces, on board, coupled with a summer full of practices and games is definitely a buzzkill in my book. After Marbury left, Stoudemire had to share shots only with Shawn Marion. Now, he has two more cooks around to spoil the broth.

Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets

Exactly what does Anthony do that warrants mention anywhere other than the mid-to-later rounds of a fantasy draft? He scored a boatload of points as a rookie (20.3 per game), but his field-goal percentage was a tough pill to swallow (43.4) considering how many attempts he had 1465. He grabbed 504 boards but was outrebounded by Golden State guard Jason Richardson (524 total rebounds), Peja Stojakovic (508), Al Harrington (508 in 500 fewer minutes) and Rashard Lewis (518). There’s no denying his talent, but the acquisition of power forward Kenyon Martin will hurt Anothony’s stat sheet as much as it helps Denver in the win column. He can’t possibly continue his scoring while deferring shots to Martin and even Nene’, who’s been clamoring for more looks at the basket. Anthony’s reported complaints in Greece during the Olympics are also a bit worrisome, as is the fact he comes in after a short offseason.

Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

All the players on this list have one thing in common—a recognizable name with plenty of big plays to back it up. Unfortunately, Terry is no longer a great fantasy player on a bad team but a bad fantasy player on a good team. As we saw with Walker and Antawn Jamison last year, a move to Dallas guarantees victories, not personal statistics. By this time next year, Terry will be nothing more than a mid-round pick. He’s averaged 150.5 threes over the last four seasons along with solid assist totals and plenty of steals (124.5 per season during the same span). The drafting of Devin Harris is just another body Terry must compete with, and one at the same position to boot. Selfishness won’t fly on Mark Cuban’s team, meaning Terry’s got no choice but to become more of a team player.

Kurt Thomas, New York Knicks

Lenny Wilkens and Isiah Thomas have done everything but tell Thomas to get lost, because his role on the team is clearly diminishing. Few teams have a glut of forwards like the Knicks do, although none can be considered a fantasy or real-life stud. From Vin Baker and Nazr Mohammed to Tim Thomas, Kurt Thomas and Michael Sweetney, there are far too bodies for a normal rotation. Thomas also doesn’t fit the up-tempo style Wilkens can run with a backcourt of Stephon Marbury and Jamal Crawford. While foul trouble has always been a major problem for Thomas, his inability to stand out among the masses in the Knicks frontcourt is cause for alarm. He played just 28 fewer minutes last season than in the 2002-03 campaign but scored 244 fewer points, had 25 fewer steals and saw his blocks drop by 17 (97-80). At age 32, Thomas’ best days are in the rearview mirror.

Gary Payton, Boston Celtics

Payton is everything the Celtics could do without—an aging, angry player who wants to be somewhere else—and is no longer the stud defender of years’ past. As a matter of fact, his offense has also gone south (likely for good) leaving only an outline of “The Glove” in its wake. Odds are Payton won’t even start the entire season for the Celtics, because of up-and-coming point guard Marcus Banks, leading to even further attitude problems. The fact that he actually reported to camp after saying he refused to play for Boston is a step in the right direction, but there’s clearly little room for improvement. His overall numbers have plummeted in the 21^st Century, shrinking just as fast as the Y2K bug and causing far more heartache. A one-time long-range bomber, Payton’s three-point shooting has declined in four of the last five seasons (177-102-74-54-55), and his overall scoring has nearly been cut in half during the span (24.2-14.6 points per game).

Other busts to take a deeper look at:

Eric Snow, Cleveland Cavaliers

The No. 1 assist option in Philly is now a two-guard for the Cavs and may ultimately come off the bench.

Jerry Stackhouse, Washington Wizards

The selfish shooter has joined a Dallas franchise that can spell team with no “I”.

Lamar Odom, L.A. Lakers

Odom’s coming off a career year, the jury’s out on just how Team Kobe will shakedown. He could post excellent assist numbers, or his field-goal percentage could go in the tank if he’s relegated to point duties on the perimeter. Odom’s checkered injury history also doesn’t help matters much.

Allan Houston, N.Y. Knicks

Simply put, the end is very near for this one-dimensional sharpshooter.

Ricky Davis, Boston Celtics

At what point during the season will Davis and Payton come to blows? It doesn’t make for a good situation on or off the court.

Steve Siniski is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association