2005 NFL Busts by Steve Siniski

Before jumping down my throat at the suggestion of Muhammad or anyone else on this list as a bust, know this: The term is used to describe a player who will fail to live up to the success of the previous year. The following players are sure-fire locks to suffer a significant drop-off in production for one reason or another and fall well below their 2005 expectations.

Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Chicago

Amazing as it may seem, no fantasy player was more valuable in the second half of 2005 than Muhammad. The aging veteran capped a career year by averaging nearly seven receptions and more than 100 yards per game while scoring 12 touchdowns in Carolina’s final eight contests. He scored more often in the second half of the year than the following stud receivers did in 16 games: Joe Horn (11 touchdowns), Torry Holt (10) and Chad Johnson (9). Problem is, the massive finish came out of nowhere. Muhammad had a combined 1,660 yards and six touchdowns with four 100-yard games in 2002-03. Last season, he finished with 1,405 yards, 16 scores and seven 100-yard efforts.

Muhammad chased the check and ended up in the Windy City, where his quarterback will be either Rex Grossman or Chad Hutchinson. Grossman may not be at full speed when the campaign begins, and the thought of Hutchinson leading the offense would be enough to make even the most diehard Bears fans turn to the NHL in mid-October. Other factors to consider when projecting his upcoming totals include weather, age and injury history. Check out the end of the Bears schedule, and you’ll see that they play four of their last five in potentially nasty conditions. Two are at Soldier Field, while one is in Pittsburgh and another at Green Bay. Muhammad’s had trouble staying healthy for stretches, particularly when it comes to his hamstrings, and the cold winds in Chicago certainly won’t help. Because Muhammad is 32, lacks playmakers around him and moves from a warm-weather climate to a cold one, even a 1,000-yard season seems to be a stretch.

Curtis Martin, RB, N.Y. Jets

Kudos to Curtis Martin for capturing the rushing title over Shaun Alexander. Don’t bet on a repeat performance in 2005. Yes, Martin is the No. 4 all-time rusher in NFL history. And yes, he’s ripped off 10 consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. But he is on the wrong side of 30, has seen his carries climb from 261 to 323 to an NFL-high 371 last year and must deal with a change in offensive coordinators to boot. Martin’s also No. 4 all-time in rushing attempts, and even Rocky Balboa could absorb so many hits before they began to take their toll.

Forget the fact that LaMont Jordan moved to Oakland, because the Jets added another solid backup, Derrick Blaylock, to help shoulder the load. Chad Pennington was hardly healthy last season and lacked significant weapons—and direction from coordinator Paul Hackett—to seriously pack punch through the air. Herm Edwards improved the team on both fronts, bringing in an old Pennington favorite, Laveranues Coles, from Washington and new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger from Tennessee. It’s time for Gang Green to go vertical and the schedule certainly lends itself to that type of attack. The Jets play eight games against defenses ranked in the Top 10 against the run, but five against units ranked 22^nd or worse against the pass, including the bottom three teams.

Corey Dillon, RB, New England

Much like Muhammad and Martin above him on this list, Dillon has passed the prime of his career. He just happened to post a career year in his first year with a Super Bowl champion and keep his mouth shut at the same time. Talk about everything clicking.

Head coach Bill Belichick had no problems calling Dillon’s number, and the 30-year old back netted a career-high 345 totes averaging 4.7 yards per carry (second best in his nine seasons). With four 300-carry campaigns in his rearview mirror over the last five seasons, Dillon will start to show the signs of overuse, in the same mold as a Ford Pickup approaching 200,000 miles. It’s just impossible to keep up with a workload that heavy without piling up nicks and dings.

The Patriots first half schedule is brutal, as they suit up for five battles against defenses ranked 9^th or better against the run before Halloween. The offense will also be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, who may or may not take advantage of any number of weapons at the goalline (Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria, David Terrell or Ben Watson), harpooning Dillon’s chances at double-digit touchdowns. Buyer beware, because Dillon will command a hefty price on Draft Day. He just isn’t going to live up to his window sticker this time around.

Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta

The struggles of Michael Vick in the West Coast offense allowed Dunn to step in and grab the scoring unit by the horns. He finished with 1,106 yards rushing and nine touchdowns, adding 29 receptions for good measure. There will be no repeat of last season’s success, because the Falcons have too many cooks to spoil his broth.

Atlanta’s ground attack featured three players who ran for at least 500 yards (Dunn, Vick and Duckett), and Dunn registered more than 20 carries just four times. Duckett, on the other hand, did see steady work over the second half, netting double-digit totes in three of his final six games. He actually outrushed Dunn three times and will continue to eat into Dunn’s workload.

Vick saw his passing weapons upgraded through the draft, as Atlanta added Roddy White to a group that includes the emerging Michael Jenkins, effective Brian Finneran and Alge Crumpler. It’s high time Vick steps up and becomes the offensive dynamo capable of providing more than a few big plays, and another offseason in the scheme will help the development of the passing game.

Santana Moss, WR, Washington

If size doesn’t matter, why hasn’t Moss become the consistent threat many believed he’d be a few years back? At 5-10, he can’t do more than out run opponents to the ball. The 18.6 yards per catch were nice last season, but Moss’ five scores were a huge disappointment, especially when you consider three came in a two-game span (Weeks 15-16). He had just two 100-yard games and failed to top more than six receptions even once.

Compounding problems, Moss now finds himself playing for a coach that clearly favors the run versus the pass. Joe Gibbs considers Clinton Portis (343 carries) the centerpiece of Washington’s attack and doesn’t exactly have the most stabile quarterbacking situation at the moment. Patrick Ramsey must get on the same page with Moss as well as former Patriot David Patten, look over his shoulder at Jason Campbell, the 25th overall pick in the draft and maintain his composure despite Gibbs constantly in his ear.

As a Jet, Moss never established himself as a true No. 1 receiver and that was with the ultra-accurate Pennington launching balls. The numbers won’t get better if Ramsey regresses even a hair from the way he closed 2004—68.5 completion percentage in the final five weeks. If the ball isn’t delivered to Moss, how can he be productive?

Marcus Pollard, TE, Detroit

Finally released from the “shackles” of the Indianapolis offense, Pollard moves to a more favorable situation in Detroit, right? Well, not exactly. The Lions have put together one of the league’s more dynamic young scoring units, meaning Pollard could be faced with the same problem as with the Colts--too many better targets for the quarterback to look for. There will be some fantasy owners out there who see Pollard and think sleeper, but don’t bet the ranch on that. Often injured during his time at the RCA Dome, Pollard hasn’t played a full 16-game slate since 2001. He’s also never scored more than six touchdowns, or had more than 47 receptions. Maybe we should also mention that his reception totals have declined in four consecutive seasons and Father Time is catching up quickly (33 years old). The move from Peyton Manning to Joey Harrington is the equivalent of a movie director losing out on Samuel L. Jackson for Ben Affleck. The effect can’t be quantified.

Others to consider…

DeShaun Foster, RB, Carolina

Let someone else take the plunge on a back that hasn’t been healthy for an extended stretch during his pro career. The return of Stephen Davis and drafting of Eric Shelton signal a backfield-by-committee.

Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee

When the Titans traded for Travis Henry, it put a large hit on Brown’s potential. An injury risk before the deal, Henry could do more damage to Brown’s career than his own body.

Jerome Bettis, RB, Pittsburgh

Seriously, can Bettis really be counted on for 13 touchdowns and six 100-yard games again? Rookie tight end Heath Miller is an instant threat to some of Bettis goalline work.

Jake Plummer, QB, Denver

The 4,000 yards passing look great on paper, the seven games with at least two interceptions and seven with one touchdown pass or fewer do not.

Tatum Bell, RB, Denver

The laundry list of backs is longer than most kids’ Christmas lists, and you can bet Mike Shanahan’s going to give every one of them a spin in his system. Bell may have the designation of being the starter, but there’s also Ron Dayne, Maurice Clarett, Mike Anderson and Quentin Griffin nipping at his heels.