Rookies to Watch in 2004 by Todd Lammi
With the success of Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, Jerome Williams and other rookies last year, it is obvious what a difference a good rookie pickup can make to a fantasy team’s place in the standings. None of those players opened the season in the major leagues last year, so when deciding which rookie to draft to your team, it is more important to note what kind of opportunities a player has, than where a player ranks overall in the prospect lists.
Following is a list of some rookies to keep an eye on for this season. The players listed are not the best players in all of the minor leagues. Rather they are the players that have the biggest chance for impact in 2004 based on the teams they play for and the opportunity they will get.
PITCHERS:
Edwin Jackson – Los Angeles Dodgers, SP
Jackson made his major league debut last season when the Dodgers need a starter to fill in for some injured members of the rotation. He led all Dodgers minor league hurlers in strikeouts using a mid-90’s fastball that explodes just before reaching the plate. Manager Jim Tracy said Jackson is the leading candidate for the 5th starter’s job, with Wilson Alvarez and Darren Dreifort in the mix as well.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
AA |
27 |
27 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
3.70 |
148.1 |
121 |
61 |
9 |
53 |
157 |
|
|
LA |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2.45 |
22 |
17 |
6 |
2 |
11 |
19 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
25 |
25 |
9 |
8 |
0 |
3.85 |
145 |
130 |
62 |
16 |
68 |
120 |
Ryan Wagner – Cincinnati Reds, RP
Wagner became the first draftee from the 2003 class when he arrived in Cincinnati last summer. Wagner was shut down at the end of last season as a precaution after throwing 79 innings at the University of Houston and 26 innings in his first pro season. He set a NCAA record at Houston in his junior year with 16.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. Wagner will start the year at a set-up man in the Reds bullpen with Danny Graves as the closer. Since Graves is due $6 million plus the next two seasons, it might take Wagner awhile to break into the closers role.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
AA |
5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0.00 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
|
|
AAA |
4 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
4.50 |
4 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
|
|
CIN |
17 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1.66 |
21 |
13 |
4 |
2 |
12 |
25 |
|
2004
|
PROJ |
69 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
2.71 |
73 |
55 |
22 |
8 |
36 |
89 |
Chad Cordero – Montreal Expos, RP
Cordero was the Expos first round pick in 2003 and made a rapid ascent to the Major Leagues, stopping only briefly in Single-A on his way up the ladder. With Rocky Biddle on the trade block, combined with the fact he was lit up the second half of last season to the tune of a 1.90 whip ratio and 6.03 era makes Cordero a good sleeper for saves in 2004. Luis Ayala would most likely get the first crack at save chances based on his performance from last season, but Cordero is still a good bet to get at least 5-10 saves for the year with a chance to become the full-time closer at some point this season.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
A |
19 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
2.05 |
26 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
10 |
17 |
|
|
MON |
12 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1.64 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
12 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
35 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
2.94 |
36.2 |
28 |
12 |
3 |
13 |
30 |
Matt Riley – Baltimore Orioles, SP
He’s baaaack. A one time top prospect for the Orioles, Riley missed all of 2001 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He made some big strides forward last year after being ineffective in the 2002 season. Riley has a good chance to break into the O’s starting rotation this year.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
AA |
14 |
14 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
3.11 |
72 |
56 |
25 |
4 |
23 |
73 |
|
|
AAA |
13 |
13 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
3.58 |
70.1 |
70 |
28 |
4 |
28 |
77 |
|
|
BALT |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1.80 |
10 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
8 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
29 |
28 |
9 |
11 |
0 |
4.42 |
167 |
159 |
82 |
18 |
75 |
125 |
Chin-hui Tsao – Colorado Rockies, Sp
Tsao became the first Taiwanese pitcher in Major League Baseball last season after he was promoted from AA. He missed the majority of the 2001 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He would be a good pitcher to rotate in the final slot on a fantasy staff for his stars on the road.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
AA |
18 |
18 |
11 |
4 |
0 |
2.46 |
113.1 |
88 |
31 |
7 |
26 |
125 |
|
|
COL |
9 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
6.02 |
43.1 |
48 |
29 |
11 |
20 |
29 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
29 |
29 |
8 |
14 |
0 |
4.76 |
172 |
160 |
91 |
22 |
65 |
139 |
Brandon Claussen – Cincinnati Reds, SP
Claussen was acquired last season from the New York Yankees in a deal for Aaron Boone. He was the top pitching prospect in the Yankees farm system before he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2002. He led the entire minor leagues in strikeouts in 2001 with 220. He has a great shot at winning a spot in the Reds rotation this season.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
A |
4 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
1.64 |
22 |
16 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
26 |
|
|
AAA-A |
11 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2.75 |
68.2 |
53 |
21 |
4 |
18 |
39 |
|
|
AAA-N |
3 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
7.47 |
15.2 |
17 |
13 |
3 |
6 |
16 |
|
|
NYY |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1.42 |
6.1 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
22 |
22 |
7 |
8 |
0 |
4.31 |
121 |
110 |
58 |
14 |
43 |
78 |
Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals, SP
Wainwright was acquired by the Cardinals this winter in a multi-player deal with the Atlanta Braves. The trade helps to speed up the timetable for him to reach the majors with the last three spots of the Cardinals rotation manned by Chris Carpenter, Dan Haren and Jeff Suppan. Wainwright should be the first pitcher recalled from the minors in the event of injury or more likely lack of performance. Scouts seem to have downgraded him in the past year because his numbers have not been as dominating as his stuff would indicate. The scouts said the same thing about Jerome Williams of the San Francisco Giants when he was in the minor leagues and look at the numbers he put up as a starter last year.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
AA |
27 |
27 |
10 |
8 |
0 |
3.37 |
149.2 |
133 |
56 |
9 |
37 |
128 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
8 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
3.60 |
40 |
38 |
16 |
6 |
12 |
28 |
Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals, SP
Greinke was the 6th overall pick of the 2002 draft and has drawn comparisons to Bret Saberhagen and Greg Maddux for his great control but lack of a dominating fastball. He is expected to compete for one of the spots in the rotation in spring training, but will most likely open the year in AAA.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
A |
14 |
14 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
1.14 |
87 |
56 |
11 |
5 |
13 |
78 |
|
|
AA |
9 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
3.23 |
53 |
58 |
19 |
5 |
5 |
34 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
4 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
5.00 |
18 |
24 |
10 |
4 |
8 |
7 |
Jesse Crain – Minnesota Twins, RP
Crain was a second round pick by the Twins in the 2002 draft. He spent time at three levels last season and has yet to allow a home run in 111.2 innings. With an unproven Joe Nathan as the current closer, Crain could see some save opportunities by the end of the year.
|
Year |
League |
G |
GS |
W |
L |
SV |
ERA |
IP |
H |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
2003 |
A |
10 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2.84 |
19 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
5 |
25 |
|
|
AA |
22 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
.69 |
39 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
10 |
56 |
|
|
AAA |
23 |
0 |
3 |
1 |
10 |
3.12 |
26 |
24 |
9 |
0 |
10 |
33 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
16 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
3.05 |
17.2 |
18 |
6 |
2 |
7 |
23 |
HITTERS:
Kazuo Matsui – New York Mets, SS
Matsui becomes the leading contender for NL Rookie of the Year after spending the past nine seasons in Japan in which he stole 306 bases. Scouts say he has more speed than Ichiro Suzuki but manager Art Howe has never been one to turn runners loose on the base paths. Matsui has already been named the leadoff hitter but his penchant for striking out might get him moved down in the order eventually.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
JAPAN |
91 |
587 |
104 |
179 |
36 |
4 |
33 |
84 |
55 |
124 |
13 |
.305 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
155 |
625 |
96 |
178 |
32 |
11 |
13 |
56 |
46 |
119 |
23 |
.285 |
Jason Bay – Pittsburgh Pirates, OF
Bay was the main component of the trade involving Brian Giles going to the San Diego Padres last season. He should open the season starting in the outfield and projects as a 20-20 player at the minimum. It is interesting to note that he has already been traded three times in four seasons of baseball. Bay underwent surgery in November for a torn labrum, but is expected to be ready for opening day.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
AAA |
91 |
307 |
64 |
93 |
11 |
1 |
20 |
59 |
55 |
71 |
23 |
.301 |
|
|
Pitt/SD |
30 |
87 |
15 |
25 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
14 |
19 |
29 |
3 |
.287 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
145 |
565 |
71 |
159 |
33 |
2 |
22 |
79 |
65 |
130 |
18 |
.281 |
Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins, C
The trade of A.J. Pierzynski has opened the door for Mauer to begin the season as the Twins starting catcher. Mauer was the first overall pick in the 2001 draft and is the top catching prospect in all of baseball. His swing and batting eye are already major league ready. His power will probably take another two to three years to develop.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
A |
62 |
233 |
25 |
78 |
13 |
1 |
1 |
44 |
24 |
24 |
3 |
.335 |
|
|
AA |
73 |
276 |
48 |
94 |
17 |
1 |
4 |
41 |
25 |
25 |
0 |
.341 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
115 |
403 |
45 |
118 |
19 |
1 |
6 |
42 |
42 |
53 |
1 |
.292 |
Bobby Crosby – Oakland A’s, SS
Crosby takes over at shortstop for departed free agent Miguel Tejada. Crosby was the A’s first round pick in 2001 and is slated to occupy the eighth or ninth spot in the batting order. He has all the tools to develop into a .280 average, 20 home run hitter in the next few years. With the A’s payroll and lack of quality shortstop prospects behind him in the minors, he will be given every opportunity to play. Translation: stick with him on your roster even if he struggles the first month of the season.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
AAA |
127 |
465 |
86 |
143 |
32 |
6 |
22 |
90 |
63 |
110 |
24 |
.308 |
|
|
OAK |
11 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
0 |
.000 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
145 |
495 |
53 |
128 |
24 |
3 |
11 |
49 |
52 |
120 |
8 |
.259 |
Adam LaRoche – Atlanta Braves, 1B
The departure of Robert Fick created an opening at first base for the Atlanta Braves that LaRoche has a chance to fill. Being a left-handed hitter, he might be platooned initially with the ageless wonder Julio Franco who hit .351 versus left-handed pitching last season. LaRoche, who has been compared to John Olerud for his defensive abilities, followed up his 2003 campaign with a strong showing in winter ball hitting .333 with 7 home runs and 20 rbi’s in 96 at-bats.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
AA |
61 |
219 |
42 |
62 |
12 |
1 |
12 |
37 |
34 |
53 |
1 |
.283 |
|
|
AAA |
72 |
264 |
33 |
78 |
21 |
0 |
8 |
35 |
27 |
58 |
1 |
.295 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
120 |
425 |
59 |
116 |
21 |
0 |
13 |
57 |
39 |
97 |
3 |
.272 |
Khalil Greene – San Diego, SS
Greene was a first-round pick in the 2002 draft after winning Player of the Year honors at Clemson University. The Padres signing of Rey Ordonez looked like a minor blip on the transaction screen but it might keep Greene in AAA to start the season unless he has a fantastic spring.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
AA |
59 |
229 |
20 |
63 |
17 |
2 |
3 |
20 |
16 |
55 |
2 |
.275 |
|
|
AAA |
76 |
319 |
42 |
92 |
19 |
0 |
10 |
47 |
20 |
52 |
5 |
.288 |
|
|
S.D. |
20 |
65 |
8 |
14 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
19 |
0 |
.215 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
95 |
328 |
35 |
82 |
18 |
2 |
7 |
36 |
21 |
65 |
4 |
.253 |
Termel Sledge – Montreal Expos, OF
Sledge is a little old for a prospect at age 27 and he wasn’t brought to the majors at the end of the season due to the roster freeze ordered by Major League Baseball. He led the Expos farm systems in batting average, home runs and rbi’s last season. Sledge should battle Endy Chavez for the center field job.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
AAA |
131 |
497 |
95 |
161 |
26 |
9 |
22 |
92 |
61 |
93 |
13 |
.324 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
30 |
115 |
20 |
32 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
22 |
11 |
23 |
5 |
.278 |
J.J. Hardy – Milwaukee Brewers, SS
Hardy had a solid campaign in AA last season after spending the off-season in the weight room. He also improved his selection at the plate, more than doubling his walk rate from the previous year. He will have a chance to battle Craig Counsell, acquired from Arizona in the Richie Sexson trade, for the starting shortstop job, but will most likely begin the year in AAA. Doesn’t have quite as much upside as some of the other shortstop prospects but will put up solid numbers if given the chance.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
AA |
114 |
416 |
67 |
116 |
26 |
0 |
12 |
62 |
58 |
54 |
6 |
.279 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
56 |
185 |
22 |
46 |
10 |
1 |
6 |
21 |
18 |
31 |
4 |
.247 |
B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay, SS
Upton is on the fast track to the major leagues after spending last year at two levels in the minor leagues at the age of 19. Drafted second overall in 2002, Upton should make an appearance in Tampa by September at the latest. He is the best shortstop prospect in the minor leagues with the potential to put up Derek Jeter like fantasy number with a slightly lower batting average.
|
Year |
League |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2b |
3b |
Hr |
Rbi |
BB |
SO |
SB |
Avg |
|
2003 |
Low A |
101 |
384 |
70 |
116 |
22 |
6 |
7 |
46 |
57 |
80 |
38 |
.302 |
|
|
AA |
29 |
105 |
14 |
28 |
8 |
0 |
1 |
18 |
16 |
25 |
2 |
.276 |
|
2004 |
PROJ |
35 |
145 |
23 |
35 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
18 |
11 |
35 |
6 |
.241 |