It is rare indeed that the unprepared franchise owner enters the new season with just his favorite beverage, smoking preference, and a pencil to cross off the players that are being selected during the live draft, and then at seasons end walks away with trophy in hand. No, this is exactly the owner or franchisee that is typically humbled and found posting "Ifs and Buts" on the leagues message board they participate in blaming their team woes on injuries or a down season by their number one draft selection. This type of owner depends on nothing more than a bad memory and generic cheat sheet that isn't even designed for the scoring format their league rests under.

The full impact and end results of a football season relies on many variables and taking the time to study the current players, coaches, injuries, and player movement is just a small part of being a champion in even the simplest of leagues in today's fantasy world. Over the course of the season FSRU will provide you with player news, customized support tools, and projected statistics for you to evaluate and analyze helping you make the best possible decisions for your fantasy franchise. It is still up to you to put in the work, the effort, and a bit of your own analytical formula to make your season the best it can be, and maybe most importantly the only faithful way to fully enjoy the FSRU experience.

I have the privilege of adding my two cents to the FSRU Football Site this year with my pre-season cheat sheet(s). In this fearless fantasy forecast you will find what I believe is the best process in evaluating team defenses. These analytically selected cheat sheet defensive teams give you your best chance to be competitive week in and week out, and possibly yellow brick the road to your league championship.

I hope you will take this time to sign up for a fantastic adventure in fantasy football with Fantasy Sports R Us by joining an available league today. May all your decisions be winners, and your 2003-04 season end as enjoyable as it starts.

Like the ancient adage on the value of real estate, a NFL championship is historically measured by three very important things, defense, defense, and defense. Reality aside, a fantasy title is far different than a real NFL championship and drafting a defense is typically a secondary thought for most fantasy owners. This thought process could be severely detrimental to your ultimate goals as a fantasy owner. The middle rounds of most fantasy drafts are truly what differentiate the winners from the losers during the long and grueling season.

One of the most important elements to winning your league is often one of the most overlooked, and that is your team defense. And ironically, it's happens to be the one category that is typically the most important to reality teams in the NFL. Just like NFL reality championships, fantasy championships are won in weeks 13 through 17 of the NFL season and this scheduling period should be a top consideration when evaluating any starting position for your fantasy team.

Fantasy attacks on the opposing league owners are typically started sometime in the late summer after a franchisee has signed up for his or her league(s) and are evaluating the draft order they have been assigned. Those owners start to make judgement on what running back they are going to take in round one, and how long they can wait to get that elusive sleeper that could make or break their season. They dream about getting a stud quarterback in round three, and then start to rank their wide outs, tight ends, and the secondary starting positions depending on the starting lineup and scoring format their league falls under.

Ignoring you defensive plan for you fantasy roster is not advised and spending any less time on this part of your attack is no different than ignoring a blatant flaw in a chain or belt that drives your boy-toys. I am not suggesting that the defense you draft is going to be the savior of your franchise in fantasy football, but you still need a plan to implement this part of the fantasy puzzle. Almost every league is different and every scheme must be choreographed to league rules, scoring, and starting lineup formats. This is absolutely essential to team success or the odds of winning are decreased before the season ever starts. Where does a defensive team fit into the battle plan? And when and where do you draw the line on what value a defense has in your specific league?

The most important quality in a fantasy player or team defense is their historical data. What has this player or team done to prove itself a qualified or solid contender defensively? What contributions have players or teams made readably available in the last season or two that provides analytical theory worthy of consideration for their high status on fantasy cheat sheets? The factors involved in attempting to answer these deep philosophical dilemmas are typically statistical, but many unforeseen factors play a part in the answers to these inquiries, and more often than not most fantasy owners’ grade out poorly on the final season exam.

The best place to start when evaluating any fantasy player is to ask yourself what type of production will a player or team provide in the trenches of your leagues fantasy playoff schedule? I never grade a player or defensive team without knowing the strength of schedule in the closing weeks of the NFL season, and I always make this my first step in valuing a specific individual or special team defense. After all, we make this fantasy journey with dreams of raising the championship plaque high at the end of the season. Unless your team is in position to compete when it truly counts then your grand plan was nothing but a tailed-fairy, when your initial vision was that of an epic fantasy. With this point made clear the following is the foundation I used this year when evaluating talent for the FSRU cheat sheet, and this list will enable any decision on when, where, and what defensive team(s) to target for this years quest.

NFL Schedules ranked from easiest to most difficult from week 13-17 of the NFL season.

1)     St. Louis

2)     Kansas City

3)     Minnesota

4)     Seattle

5)     Carolina

6)     Tennessee

7)     Chicago

8)     Denver

9)     San Francisco

10) Arizona

11) New England

12) Baltimore

13) Washington

14) Jacksonville

15) Tampa Bay

16) Pittsburgh

17) New York Giants

18) New Orleans

19) Cincinnati

20) Green Bay

21) Cleveland

22) Indianapolis

23) Dallas

24) Detroit

25) Miami

26) Philadelphia

27) San Diego

28) New York Jets

29) Houston

30) Atlanta

31) Buffalo

32) Oakland

As you can see from the strength of schedule in weeks 13 through 17 it appears that the top ranked defensive teams in reality, and in fantasy have it rather difficult during the fantasy playoff schedule this season. Thus making it very difficult to value them high on any fantasy cheat sheet. You might also notice that potential fantasy studs like Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Kurt Warner, Priest Holmes, Trent Green, Tony Gonzalez, Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper should move up a notch on your position rankings due to the their teams light competition in the closing weeks. Timing is everything in fantasy football and if you can position yourself to be match-up strong late in the schedule due to advantageous scheduling you’ll possibly have that needed edge to make a long run, deep throw, or defensive stand into a fantasy championship.

The following defensive rankings are valued within the Fantasy Sports R Us scoring format, and projected over the entire 2003-04 season.

1)     Tampa Bay 

2)     Philadelphia

3)     Pittsburgh 

4)     Green Bay 

5)     Miami 

6)     Carolina

7)     Atlanta

8)     Oakland

9)     Tennessee

10) Baltimore

11) New England

12) St Louis

13) Indianapolis

14) New York Giants

15) Washington

16) New York Jets

17) Kansas City

18) San Francisco

19) Dallas

20) San Diego

21) Buffalo

22) Denver

23) Jacksonville

24) New Orleans

25) Chicago

26) Cleveland

27) Minnesota

28) Cincinnati

29) Arizona

30) Detroit

31) Houston

32) Seattle

Tampa Bay ranks head and shoulders above the rest of the field in the FSRU scoring format. With the Bucs resting in the middle of the strength of schedule rankings during the fantasy playoffs they register as the best defense available and the only defensive team that rates a middle round selection in the FSRU draft.

Philadelphia takes the second spot in FSRU’s defensive rankings and although they are a several notches below the Tampa Bay defense they have a noticeable edge over the Pittsburgh and the rest of the defenses in the league. They are the only other team defense that should even be considered before the ninth round of any FSRU draft.

Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Dolphins and Panthers are all very close in value for the FSRU scoring system. What I found interesting is that over the course of the season this scoring format shows little difference between the third ranked team (Pittsburgh) and the twenty-third ranked team (Jacksonville). With the scoring this close for these defenses over the course of the season it makes drafting a team defense other than Tampa or Philadelphia before the tenth round a poor value overall.

Most fantasy owners have a tendency to either overvalue or undervalue defensive contributions to their fantasy team. Obviously where and when you draft a defensive team depends on how the league scoring format is setup, and many times defensive units will be inconsistent from week to week depending on their scheduled match-up.

Take some time to compare strength of schedules during the fantasy playoffs and the defense you are targeting. Make it a point to encompass the lists I have provided and find the best value according to, and including, your own personal value factors.  Make a decision on when you should roster a spot for your specific defensive selection in the fantasy draft. Have an alternative replacement, and value that selection in accordance with a draft round as well. Stick with your plan and be patient.

The Panthers seem to be the best value overall with their high rating in the FSRU scoring format along with the combination of having a relatively easy closing schedule. St. Louis appear to be a possible steal in the late rounds defensively, and the Rams last five games of the year rank as the easiest among the 32 NFL teams.

You must make a decision on targeting a specific team defense and have an alternative list that is well thought out and researched in case your targeted defense is unavailable in the specific round you projected.  Select a round in the draft you would like to specifically target that defensive team for, and I can not reiterate this enough, stick with your plan. Don’t be afraid to patiently wait on an alternative defense even when your league is making a run on defensive or special teams. Chances are if there is an early run on defenses you will be gaining depth in the skilled positions.  I have seen this countless times in league drafts and let me assure you these owners, the ones that follow the crowed run, will come calling with offers begging for your player depth to patch their unbalanced team. You will be yet another step ahead of the pack in your league and the value of these late round skilled position players will raise yet another notch enabling you to strengthen your team in areas you were unable too during the actual draft.

I have over the years been fortunate enough to have won several fantasy championships and in most formats have carried only one defensive team on my roster. I would however use defensive free agents in specific match-ups during the season schedule. I pin-pointed free agent defensives weeks in advance to pick up off the wire sometimes based on one lone game in their season schedule. I essentially used the free agent list so to speak as my injured reserve, or my minor league team, especially in leagues that carry of short roster of only 12 or 13 players.

In other words don’t be afraid to wait deep in your draft to select a defensive team. Remember this, there are only 12 teams in your league and there are 32 defenses in the selection pool. With there being very little valued difference between the third rated defense (Pittsburgh) and the twenty-third rated defense (Jacksonville) why would you waste a valued pick on a defense until the draft was nearly complete? Your middle round roster selections can be spent on expanding your bench and acquiring trade bait for those owners that over valued their defensive target, and found themselves unbalanced when the draft was concluded. 

I’m completely convinced that having one or two favorable match-ups at the skilled positions during the playoffs is often all it takes to gain the upper hand in any league, this applies to a specific defensive match-ups as well. Plan ahead by using the defensive free agent list and pick up a stop unit you feel has a solid chance to overachieve. Never underestimate the point-potential of a lower ranked defense in a favorable match-up anytime during the season, and especially in special circumstances during the playoffs that could make your season a huge success.

Don’t go into the season narrow-minded or with a delusional view that a single defense is going to create that edge your team needs to narrow the fine line between winning and losing, but don’t completely ignore their value over the course of the season either. Remember that perceptions change during the NFL season, and so do the value of players and team defenses, much of this due to unexpected injuries. The last four Super Bowl Champions (Ravens, Patriots, Rams and Bucs) have all been long shots to win the reality title, and more than likely there will be some surprise player and maybe more importantly a surprise defense that will make your team that long shot fantasy champion as well. All things being equal, draft well, plan better, and most important have fun this season with the FSRU experience.

 A word on Tony Finn
Tony Finn is a national freelance sports columnist that has covered the NFL Football scene for over 20 years. Tony excels at bringing special insights and exclusive material on fantasy football and its players with accuracy and passion. Tony has written for over 30 national publications in his years as a sports columnist and has enjoyed sharing the fruits of his labor with impassioned fantasy owners along with winning several regional and national fantasy football titles himself, including the National Fantasy Football title from Wess Sports in 1997. Whether it's covering from the sideline, attending pre-game football conferences with selected insiders, visiting practices, or interviewing players from around the sporting world, Tony will be somewhere getting and giving the best of all the fantasy news.